Tether/Argentine Peso Market Overview

• Price surged to 1548.0, hitting a 24-hour high before retracting near 1534.0.
• Strong buying pressure emerged mid-day, with volume peaking at 303,732.
• Overbought RSI and diverging volume suggest potential near-term correction.
• Key support appears at 1530.0, with Fibonacci retracements reinforcing this level.
• Volatility expanded in afternoon trading, with Bollinger Bands widening sharply.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-07, USDTARS opened at 1527.8 and rose to a high of 1548.0, before settling at 1534.0 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 1523.6 and 1548.0, with a total 24-hour volume of 3,037,320 and a notional turnover of ~$4.69 billion. The late-day rally and volume divergence raise questions about sustainability.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a bullish bias, with multiple engulfing patterns forming in the late morning and early afternoon. A significant high of 1548.0 was followed by a large bearish reversal candle at 15:15 ET, suggesting short-term profit-taking. Key support levels appear at 1530.0 and 1527.8, both of which have held in prior retracements. Resistance is now at 1545.2, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level reinforcing that area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has oscillated around the 20-EMA and 50-EMA for much of the session, with a brief break above the 50-EMA in the afternoon. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day averages are not yet available, but the 100-day MA appears near 1534.0, coinciding with the current close. This alignment suggests a potential equilibrium point for the near term.

MACD & RSI

RSI reached overbought territory (70+) at 15:30 ET, followed by a sharp divergence between the indicator and price as the rally stalled. MACD turned negative in the late afternoon, confirming a weakening bullish momentum. A bearish crossover in the 15-minute MACD could signal further downward pressure if confirmed by price action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the afternoon, with Bollinger Bands widening from 14 to over 18 in the 15-minute chart. The peak at 1548.0 occurred outside the upper band, indicating an overextended move. Price has since retracted to the lower band, where it may find short-term support before a potential rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 303,732 at 13:45 ET, coinciding with the 1543.8 high. However, turnover declined slightly during the subsequent retracement, indicating weaker follow-through buying. A divergence between price and volume suggests caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 1523.6–1548.0 swing, key levels at 1535.8 (38.2%) and 1529.8 (61.8%) appear to be critical. The 61.8% level may act as a floor, while the 38.2% level could provide a pivot for a potential rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for USDTARS involves entering long positions when price breaks above the 20-EMA and closes above the 50-EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss set below the most recent swing low. A short position could be triggered when RSI exceeds 70 and MACD turns negative, particularly when volume diverges. This strategy would aim to capture short-term momentum while managing risk through Fibonacci retracement levels and Bollinger Band boundaries.