Test/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-10

• Price dropped sharply after midday ET amid bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked following a key breakdown under 0.03235.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions as of 12:00 ET.
• Volume surged during the late-night selloff, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential for further downside into 0.0308.

Opening Summary

Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at 0.03266 on 2025-10-09 at 16:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.03303 before closing at 0.03165 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair traded between 0.03303 and 0.02884 over the 24-hour period, with a total volume of 74,089,083.3 and notional turnover of approximately $2,362,412.00.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a bearish structure as TSTUSDT moved below critical support at 0.03235 following a sharp breakdown after 21:45 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 03:15 ET and 03:30 ET, confirming the downtrend. A long bearish candle at 03:15 ET (close: 0.03183) and a doji at 04:15 ET signal indecision and weakening momentum. Resistance levels are now clustered at 0.03245–0.03266, while immediate support lies at 0.03134–0.03126.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below price at 03:30 ET, forming a death cross that confirmed the bearish trend. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are also aligned below the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish after 03:30 ET, with a negative divergence forming below the zero line. RSI hit oversold territory (below 30) at 06:00 ET and remained there into the close, indicating potential for a short-term bounce but not necessarily a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the late-night selloff, with price reaching the lower band at 0.0306 (15:00 ET), suggesting a period of high volatility. Price remained within the bands throughout the 24-hour window, but with a clear downward bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown below 0.03235, with a 15-minute candle at 03:15 ET showing a volume of 4,301,397.9 and a turnover of ~$137,883. The selloff was confirmed by high notional turnover despite the falling price.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high (0.03303) and swing low (0.02884), the 38.2% retracement is at 0.03178, and the 61.8% is at 0.03117. Price closed just below the 61.8% level at 0.03165, suggesting potential for a test of the 0.0308 level next.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish breakdown and confirmation via volume and momentum indicators, a backtest strategy could involve a short entry below the 0.03235 support with a stop above the 0.03266 resistance. A Fibonacci-based target at 0.0308 could serve as a profit-taking level, while RSI divergence might signal a potential short-term bounce. This setup aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and would benefit from a continuation of the current downtrend.