Giro turbulento de Tesla: una caída del 2,4 % en medio de la volatilidad del sector y la salida de Cathie Wood

Summary
• Cathie Wood's Ark Invest offloads $30M in Tesla shares, signaling a strategic pivot to gene-editing and autonomous mobility sectors.
• Tesla's intraday price plummets to $461.32, a 2.4% drop from its 2025 open of $469.0.
• Leveraged ETFs like TSLY (-1.98%) and TSLP (-2.33%) mirror the stock's bearish momentum.

Today’s market action underscores Tesla’s precarious position as a battleground stock. A sharp intraday decline, coupled with Cathie Wood’s exit and sector-wide uncertainty, has ignited a wave of short-term bearish sentiment. With the stock trading below its 200-day moving average and key options contracts showing elevated implied volatility, investors are recalibrating their strategies in a volatile environment.

Cathie Wood’s Exit Sparks Short-Term Bearish Sentiment
The immediate catalyst for Tesla’s 2.4% intraday drop stems from Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest reducing its Tesla stake by 60,715 shares, valued at $30 million. This move, part of a broader reallocation into CRISPR Therapeutics and autonomous mobility plays like WeRide, signals a shift in investor confidence. The sale amplifies bearish sentiment, particularly as Tesla’s valuation remains stretched at 391x dynamic PE. Compounding this, regulatory uncertainty—exacerbated by Musk’s public clashes with Trump and the impending EV tax credit expiration—has left the stock vulnerable to profit-taking and short-term profit-liquidation.

EV Sector Mixed as Rivian Holds Steady
Leveraged ETFs and Options Playbook for a Volatile Tesla
• MACD: 14.19 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 12.48 (rising), Histogram: 1.71 (positive momentum)
• RSI: 57.38 (neutral), 200D MA: 355.96 (below current price), Bollinger Bands: 419.06–502.92 (wide range)
• Support/Resistance: 428.63–430.61 (30D), 425.56–430.92 (200D)

Top Options Contracts:
1. TSLA20260102C465 (Call, $465 strike, 2026-01-02):
• IV: 38.47% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 58.01% (high), Delta: 0.4958 (moderate), Theta: -2.67 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0191 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $47.1M (liquid)
• Payoff: At 5% downside (440.51), max(0, 440.51 - 465) = $0. This contract thrives on a sharp rebound above $465, leveraging high gamma and leverage ratio for rapid premium gains.
2. TSLA20260102C467.5 (Call, $467.5 strike, 2026-01-02):
• IV: 38.86% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 66.77% (high), Delta: 0.4491 (moderate), Theta: -2.50 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0187 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $26.7M (liquid)
• Payoff: At 5% downside (440.51), max(0, 440.51 - 467.5) = $0. Ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a bounce above $467.5, with high leverage and gamma amplifying gains on a reversal.

ETF Focus: TSLY (-1.98%) and TSLP (-2.33%) offer leveraged exposure but require caution due to their steep declines. Aggressive traders may consider TSLA20260102C465 into a rebound above $465, while hedging with TSLA20260102C467.5 for a higher-risk, higher-reward play.

Backtest Tesla Stock Performance
The backtest of Tesla (TSLA) after an intraday plunge of at least -2% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-term performance. The 3-day win rate is 51.03%, the 10-day win rate is 51.65%, and the 30-day win rate is 55.35%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return during the backtest was 8.72% over 30 days, suggesting that TSLA often rebounds strongly from significant dips.

Tesla at a Crossroads: Watch $460 Support and Sector Dynamics
Tesla’s 2.4% decline reflects a confluence of short-term bearish signals and sector-wide uncertainty. While the stock remains above its 200-day MA and MACD shows bullish divergence, the path forward hinges on breaking key levels. A close below $460 (lower Bollinger Band) could trigger further selling, while a rebound above $467.5 may attract buyers. Investors should monitor Cathie Wood’s next moves and Rivian’s muted performance (-0.02%) as sector barometers. For now, short-term bearish strategies or tight-range trading setups are prudent, with a focus on high-gamma options like TSLA20260102C465.