Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Focus on $500 Call OI and Strategic Entry Points for Q4 2025 Breakout

• TSLA surges 2.76% to $494.50, driven by Q4 earnings beat and Cybertruck upgrades.
• Options data shows 35,948 open interest at $500 call (this Friday’s expiry), vs. 33,598 puts at $190—hinting at near-term bullish bias.
• Block trades like TSLA20250919C380 and TSLA20260116P410 suggest institutional positioning ahead of key catalysts.

Here’s the core insight: TSLA’s options market is pricing in a strong near-term upside bias, with technicals and news aligning for a potential breakout above $500. But watch for risks if the stock falters below $430.61 (30D support).

Bullish Sentiment in OTM Options and Block Trades

The options chain tells a clear story. For this Friday’s expiry (Dec 26), the $500 call dominates with 35,948 open interest—just $5.50 below the current price. That’s not a lottery ticket; it’s a bet on a sharp move higher. The next tier at $510 ($22 OTM) adds 22,103 contracts, suggesting some hedging or scaling into bullish positions.

On the put side, the $190 strike (way OTM) has 33,598 open interest, but that’s more about extreme downside protection than active bearishness. The put/call ratio of 0.79 (for open interest) reinforces the bullish tilt—calls outweigh puts by 26%.

Block trades add intrigue. The TSLA20250919C380 (1,200 contracts) and TSLA20260116P410 (400 puts) hint at positioning for longer-term moves. The sell put at TSLA20260618P410 (200 contracts) could signal a hedge against a 2026 dip. These aren’t random—they’re strategic bets by big players.

News Flow: Fuel for the Bull Case

Tesla’s recent headlines are a goldmine for bulls. The Q4 earnings beat ($23.4B revenue), Cybertruck upgrades (15% better batteries), and $1.5B buyback all scream "momentum." The BYD partnership and Texas Gigafactory expansion add tailwinds for 2026.

But don’t ignore the negatives. The $200M EPA fine and short-term downgrade (12% drop) show risks. However, the options data and technicals suggest investors are pricing in resilience. The key question: Will the buyback and production gains outweigh regulatory headwinds?

Actionable Trading Ideas

For options traders, the TSLA20251226C500 (this Friday’s expiry) is a high-conviction play. If the stock breaks above $497.09 (Bollinger Upper Band), this call could see explosive gains. A safer bet: a bull call spread with TSLA20251226C500 and TSLA20251226C520 to cap risk.

For stock traders, consider entry near $485.33 (intraday low) if support holds. A break above $498.82 (intraday high) would target $510–$520. Stop-loss below $430.61 (30D support) would protect against a reversal.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test TSLA’s resolve. A close above $500 could trigger a wave of call-covered calls, accelerating the move. But if the stock stumbles below $446.99 (middle Bollinger Band), the bullish narrative weakens.

Either way, the options market and technicals are aligned for a directional move. Bulls have the edge—but don’t ignore the risks. As always, position size matters.

Bottom line: TSLA is at a crossroads. The data points to a breakout, but patience and discipline will separate winners from losers in the coming days.