Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Jan 16–23 Expirations

• TSLA trades at $454.08, up 2% from open, with RSI at 32 (oversold) and MACD trending lower
• Put/Call OI ratio at 0.82 (calls dominate), heavy call OI at $500 and $960 strikes
• Block trades show $2.3M call buy at $440 strike and $1M put sell at same strike

Here’s what’s happening: TSLA’s options market is screaming bullish, but technicals and news tell a mixed story. Let’s break it down.

Betting on Breakouts: Call OI and Block Trade Signals

Options traders are piling into calls like TSLA20260116C500 (OI: 43,853) and TSLA20260116C960 (OI: 51,083), with 70% of this Friday’s call OI concentrated above $470. That’s not just noise—it’s a bet on a sharp rebound. The $440 strike is a hotspot too: a $3.1M block trade bought calls while simultaneously selling puts, suggesting big players are hedging a short-term rally.

But don’t ignore the puts. Heavy OI at $250 (OI: 42,445) and $270 (OI: 8,205) for next Friday’s expirations shows bears aren’t out of the game. If TSLA dips below $438 (intraday low), those puts could trigger a short squeeze. The key? Watch the $454.30 intraday high—break above that, and the $500 call wall becomes a gravity well.

News vs. Options: Analyst Divergence and Robotaxi Hype

Analysts are all over the map. Wells Fargo’s $130 target (Underweight) clashes with Wedbush’s $600 (Outperform). The $408.54 median target lines up with the 200D MA at $423.60, but the options market’s $500+ focus suggests traders are pricing in Robotaxi optimism.

Here’s the catch: Q3 earnings missed by $0.02, and delivery declines (16% YoY) are real risks. If FSD regulatory delays hit, the $250 put wall could turn into a death spiral. But if Robotaxi demos dazzle this month, the $960 call OI might not look so crazy.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls, Puts, and Stock Entries

For options:

• Bullish: Buy TSLA20260116C500 (strike $500) if price hits $460. The $500 call has 43,853 OI and could explode if TSLA gaps up.
• Bearish: Buy TSLA20260123P250 (strike $250) as insurance if the stock dips below $438.

For stock:

• Entry near $429 (30D support) if price tests the lower Bollinger Band at $421.61. Target $454.84 (30D MA) first, then $461.82 (middle BB).
• Aggressive long: Buy TSLA if it breaks above $454.30 intraday high, targeting $470 (call OI wall) with a stop at $438.

Volatility on the Horizon

TSLA is dancing on a tightrope. The options data leans bullish, but earnings misses and delivery risks keep the floor shaky. If Robotaxi momentum builds, the $500–$960 call wall could propel shares toward Wedbush’s $600 target. But a breakdown below $425.56 (200D support) would validate Wells Fargo’s bear case. Either way, this week’s expirations (Jan 16) will test the market’s patience. Stay nimble—this stock isn’t going out quietly.