Tesla (TSLA) Options Signal $450 Call Dominance and $600 Bull Case as AI Momentum Fuels 42% Upside Potential

• Tesla’s current price of $428.65 shows a 1.24% intraday gain, with volume surging to 48.27 million shares amid bullish technicals (MACD 26.34, RSI 73.41).
• Options data reveals a call-heavy bias: 35,959 open interest at $450 OTM calls and 43,956 at $140 OTM puts, with a put/call ratio of 0.8489 for open interest.
• Wedbush and IBD analysts project a $600 price target, citing AI-driven robotaxi potential and a $2 trillion valuation forecast by early 2026.

The confluence of options positioning, technical momentum, and AI-driven optimism paints a compelling case for Tesla’s near-term upside. With call open interest concentrated at $450–$460 and block trades hinting at institutional bullishness, the stock appears primed for a breakout above key resistance levels. However, legal risks and market share pressures demand caution.

OTM Call Overload at $450–$460 and Whale Moves Signal AI-Driven Bull Case

The options chain for Tesla reveals a striking imbalance in open interest. For Friday expiration, the $450 call (OI: 31,434) and $460 call (OI: 23,605) dominate, while the $140 put (OI: 43,956) anchors downside risk. This distribution suggests institutional positioning for a sharp rally, with heavy call OI at $450–$460 acting as a psychological threshold. The $450 call is particularly noteworthy, as it aligns with Wedbush’s $600 price target and represents a 7.5% move from current levels.

Block trades further reinforce this narrative. The TSLA20250919C380 call (1,200 contracts, $3.81 million turnover) and TSLA20250919C400 call (500 contracts, $1.365 million) indicate large-scale accumulation of bullish exposure. These trades, combined with the $450 call’s OI, suggest a strategic bet on Tesla’s AI-driven valuation re-rating. However, the $140 put—a 70% downside from current prices—signals that market participants are hedging against extreme scenarios, such as regulatory setbacks or production delays.

News-Driven AI Narrative Validates Options Sentiment and $600 Price Targets

The recent surge in options activity aligns with a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Wedbush’s $600 target and $2 trillion valuation forecast hinge on Tesla’s leadership in AI-driven autonomous driving and robotaxi monetization. Deutsche Bank’s Q3 delivery optimism and Morgan Stanley’s “Buy” rating further validate this narrative. Institutional investors are increasingly viewing Tesla as a tech play, not just an EV company, with AI and energy storage initiatives driving long-term value.

However, the news flow is not uniformly positive. A $51 million lawsuit over a robot injury and a class-action securities lawsuit add legal headwinds. Additionally, Tesla’s U.S. EV market share has fallen below 40%, raising questions about its competitive edge. Yet, these risks appear priced into the stock, with the $140 put serving as a floor for downside protection. The broader AI narrative—bolstered by partnerships like Mercor and the Megablock launch—continues to dominate investor sentiment.

Actionable Trade Ideas: $450 Call Buy-to-Open and $140 Put Hedge for TSLA

For options traders, the $450 call (TSLA240920C00450000) expiring next Friday (OI: 14,879) offers a high-conviction play. With Tesla trading at $428.65, this call is 5.3% out of the money but positioned to accelerate if the stock breaks above its 30-day resistance of $347.0996. A breakout above $434.6 (intraday high) could trigger a rally toward $450, with the $450 call offering leveraged exposure to this move.

For risk management, the $140 put (TSLA240920P00140000) provides a deep-out-of-the-money hedge. While a $140 price is extreme, this put caps downside risk at a 67% drop from current levels. Retail traders could also consider a $430 call (TSLA240920C00430000) for a more conservative entry, as it aligns with the 200-day moving average ($334.22) and recent support at $421.02.

Stock traders should consider entry near $421.02 (intraday low) with a target at $450 and a stop-loss at $400 (200-day MA). A breakout above $434.6 could trigger a retest of the Bollinger Band upper bound ($466.66), offering a 9% upside from current levels. For a longer-term play, the $500 call (TSLA240927C00500000) expiring next Friday (OI: 17,571) provides exposure to Wedbush’s $600 target.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism with Legal and Market Share Risks

Tesla’s trajectory hinges on its ability to execute on AI and energy storage initiatives while mitigating legal and operational risks. The $450 call and $140 put represent a strategic bet on this balance. If the stock closes above $450 by Friday, it could signal a shift in market perception, validating Wedbush’s $600 thesis. Conversely, a failure to hold above $421.02 (intraday low) could reignite bearish sentiment, particularly with the $140 put acting as a psychological floor.

In the broader context, Tesla’s rebranding as an AI and energy company—rather than a carmaker—positions it for long-term growth. However, near-term volatility is inevitable, with the $450 call and $140 put serving as barometers for market confidence. Traders should monitor the $430 call as a proxy for short-term momentum and the $320 put (OI: 11,915) for signs of capitulation. Ultimately, Tesla’s AI-driven narrative remains intact, but execution will determine whether the $600 target becomes a reality.