Tesla to Report Q3 Deliveries Wednesday: What to Expect

Tesla is set to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Wednesday, October 18, 2023, with investors eagerly awaiting the results. The electric vehicle (EV) giant has experienced a sequential decline in volumes due to planned downtimes for factory upgrades, as discussed on its recent earnings call. Despite this, Tesla's 2023 volume target of around 1.8 million vehicles remains unchanged.

In the third quarter, Tesla produced over 430,000 vehicles and delivered over 435,000 vehicles. The sequential decline in volumes was caused by planned downtimes for factory upgrades, as discussed on the most recent earnings call. Our 2023 volume target of around 1.8 million vehicles remains unchanged.


Analyst consensus has Tesla global Q3 deliveries totaling 461,000 units, up 6% vs. Q3 2023, according to FactSet. This total would represent the third best quarterly delivery total ever for Tesla, behind Q2 2023's 466,000 and Q4 2023's record-setting 485,000 deliveries. Analysts project Tesla matching its record total in the fourth quarter, meaning unit sales would be flat compared to a year ago.

On Monday, Barclays wrote that it expects Q3 deliveries totaling 470,000 vehicles, which is well above the consensus estimate. The firm said that Q3 volume strength will be driven almost entirely by China while Europe has been a weak spot for Tesla.


Tesla China is benefiting from continued five-year, zero-interest loans to buyers, as well as increased government subsidies for EVs. These are currently running through the end of September. However, Tesla vehicle deliveries in Europe are down more than 16% so far this year, according to Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors.

Tesla stock edged up 0.3% to 250.77 during market action on Tuesday after jumping 4.9% to 250 on Monday — climbing further above its 50-day moving average to within 8% of its July high. Tesla's China vehicle registrations in Q3 are now about 1% above its previous best quarterly performance in China, during Q4 2023. Tesla's year-to-date China registrations have also turned positive in recent weeks. So far in 2024, Tesla registrations in China are up 2% compared to the same time frame in 2023.

As Tesla prepares to report its Q3 deliveries, investors will be closely watching the results to gauge the company's performance and potential future growth. The EV market remains competitive, and Tesla's ability to maintain its market leadership will depend on factors such as production efficiency, innovation, and consumer demand.