Tesla Surges 4.07% as Robotaxi Breakthrough Ignites Market Frenzy—What’s Next for the EV Giant?

Summary
• Elon Musk confirms Tesla robotaxi testing without safety monitors, sparking 4.07% rally
• Stock hits $481.77, its highest level in nearly a year
• Options frenzy: $480 call options see 103% price surge as volatility spikes to 48%

Tesla’s stock roared to a 4.07% intraday gain on December 15, 2025, fueled by CEO Elon Musk’s confirmation that robotaxi testing in Austin is now fully driverless. The stock’s 52-week high of $481.77 was briefly touched, while options volatility surged to 48% as traders bet on a new era of autonomous mobility. With the EV sector in flux and regulatory hurdles looming, the market is now pricing in a $1.5 trillion valuation based on Musk’s bold timeline for unsupervised ridesharing.

Robotaxi Progress Sparks Rally as Safety Monitor Removal Validates AI Ambitions
Tesla’s 4.07% surge was directly triggered by Elon Musk’s confirmation that the company is testing robotaxis without safety monitors in Austin. This milestone, first hinted at in social media posts and later reiterated in Reuters and Motley Fool reports, validated investor optimism about Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) roadmap. The removal of human oversight in testing signals regulatory and technical progress, aligning with Musk’s year-end 2025 forecast for unsupervised ridesharing. Analysts like Seth Goldstein of Morningstar called the move ‘in line with expectations,’ while the stock’s 4.9% intraday peak reflected a market recalculating Tesla’s AI-driven value proposition beyond EV sales.

EV Sector Mixed as Tesla Leads Autonomous Revolution
While Tesla surged, the broader EV sector showed mixed momentum. Rivian announced its ‘Autonomy & AI Day,’ unveiling a $49.99/month subscription for hands-free driving, but its stock lagged behind Tesla’s gains. Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous unit, continues to dominate with 450,000 weekly rides, yet its parent company’s shares fell 0.62%. Tesla’s focus on AI-driven autonomy and Cybercab production in 2026 has positioned it as the sector’s clear leader, with investors pricing in a 70% global autonomous market share by 2035, per Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Options Frenzy: High-Leverage Calls and Volatility Playbook for TSLA Bulls
• MACD: 6.72 (above signal line 3.27), RSI: 80.94 (overbought), Bollinger Upper Band: $471.16 (below current price), 200D MA: $346.08 (far below)
• Key Levels: 52W High $481.77 (tested), 30D Support $429.73, 200D Support $315.53
• ETF/Options Focus: No leveraged ETF data available, but options volatility (48% IV) and gamma (0.0148–0.015) suggest strong short-term momentum.

Top Options:
• TSLA20251219C480 (Call, $480 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 47.99% (mid-range), Leverage: 49.73%, Delta: 0.4767, Theta: -2.89, Gamma: 0.0148, Turnover: $110.5M
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $476.72 → $499.99 → $19.99/share gain. High leverage and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% rally.
• TSLA20251219C490 (Call, $490 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 48.92% (mid-range), Leverage: 80.10%, Delta: 0.3386, Theta: -2.30, Gamma: 0.0133, Turnover: $36.5M
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $476.72 → $499.99 → $9.99/share gain. Aggressive leverage (80%) suits high-conviction bulls.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider TSLA20251219C480 into a bounce above $480, while TSLA20251219C490 offers 80%+ leverage for a sustained breakout. Both contracts benefit from high gamma and moderate IV, ensuring responsiveness to price swings.

Backtest Tesla Stock Performance
The backtest of Tesla (TSLA) following a 4% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows poor performance. The strategy yielded a 13.45% return, lagging the benchmark by 29.52%. With a maximum drawdown of 0% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.05, the strategy had minimal risk but also limited gains.

Tesla’s Robotaxi Breakthrough: A New Bull Case or Regulatory Hurdle?
Tesla’s 4.07% rally underscores the market’s belief in its AI-driven autonomy as a $1T+ growth engine. With the stock near its 52-week high and options volatility at 48%, the key near-term catalyst is whether Cybercab production meets Musk’s April 2026 timeline. Investors should monitor regulatory responses to unsupervised testing and Rivian’s AI-powered autonomy rollout. For now, TSLA20251219C480 and TSLA20251219C490 offer high-leverage plays on a potential $500+ move. Meanwhile, sector leader Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 0.62%, highlighting the sector’s divergence—stay bullish on Tesla’s AI narrative but cautious on broader EV valuations.