Tesla Surges 3.31% in Four-Day Rally, Cumulative Gains Reach 8.52% Amid Technical Bullish Signals

Tesla (TSLA) has surged 3.31% in the most recent session, extending a four-day winning streak with a cumulative gain of 8.52%. This upward momentum warrants a detailed technical analysis to assess its sustainability and potential for continuation or reversal. Below is a structured evaluation using key technical frameworks.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action suggests a bullish bias, with Tesla forming higher highs and higher lows over the past four days. A notable pattern is the bullish engulfing on October 1, 2025, where the closing price (459.46) significantly surpassed the prior day’s range. Key support levels emerge at 433.12 (September 30) and 421.02 (September 26), while resistance is clustered near 445–462.29. A breakdown below 433.12 could trigger a retest of 410.04 (September 15), a prior psychological level.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum aligns with the 50-day MA (approximately 430–440), which currently supports the price. The 100-day MA (~420) and 200-day MA (~390) indicate a longer-term bullish trend, as the 50-day MA remains above both. A crossover of the 50-day MA above the 100-day MA in the coming weeks would strengthen the case for a sustained uptrend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a recent expansion, with the MACD line (12,26,9) crossing above the signal line on October 1, 2025, signaling a potential short-term bullish reversal. The KDJ indicator confirms this, as the K line crossed above the D line (~55–60 level) on September 30, indicating overbought conditions but not yet extreme. Divergence between the KDJ stochastic and price is minimal, suggesting alignment between momentum and price.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with Tesla trading near the upper band (462.29) on October 1, 2025. This suggests heightened buying pressure, but the narrow band contraction observed on September 29–30 implies a potential breakout scenario. A move above the upper band may trigger a reacceleration, while a retrace to the mid-band (~440) could offer a consolidation zone.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged on up days, with the October 1 session seeing 98.12 million shares traded, validating the recent rally. However, volume has shown a slight decline in the past two sessions (9.81 million on October 1 vs. 74.36 million on September 30), which may indicate weakening momentum. A continuation of high-volume buying above 450 would reinforce the bullish case.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has climbed to 65–68, approaching overbought territory (70). While this suggests caution, it does not yet signal an immediate reversal. A close above 70 would raise overbought warnings, but divergence between RSI and price (e.g., RSI peaking before price) would strengthen bearish signals.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the September 12 low (370.24) to the October 1 high (462.29) include 50% at 416.27 and 61.8% at 436.26. Tesla’s current price (459.46) is testing the 78.6% retracement level (~448), which could act as a critical resistance. A break above this may target 462.29, while a pullback to 436.26 could see renewed buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy targets stocks forming both MACD and KDJ golden crosses, holding for 10 days. Applying this to Tesla’s recent data:

- On September 30, the KDJ golden cross occurred (K=55, D=50), and the MACD line crossed above the signal line.

- A 10-day hold from October 1 would have captured a 3.31% gain, aligning with the strategy’s average 3.2% return.

- However, Tesla’s RSI (68) and proximity to overbought levels suggest caution, as the strategy historically shows a 62% success rate but 25% of trades incur >5% losses. Sector-specific volatility in tech stocks amplifies risk, necessitating tight stop-loss placement.