Tesla explota un 2.56% en medio de la histeria reguladora y de la histeria del robotaxi ¿Qué alimenta la maniobra?

Summary
• Tesla’s stock hits a 52-week high of $498.82 amid unsupervised robotaxi tests in Austin.
• Delaware Supreme Court reinstates Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package, boosting investor sentiment.
• ProShares Ultra TSLA (TSLI) surges 5.6% as leveraged ETFs amplify bullish momentum.

Tesla’s shares are trading at $493.53, up 2.56% intraday, with a 52-week high of $498.82 and a 52-week low of $214.25. The rally is driven by renewed optimism around robotaxi development and regulatory clarity, despite weak EV sales and a sky-high P/E ratio of 312.21. Investors are balancing near-term risks with long-term bets on autonomous driving and robotics.

Robotaxi Hype and Legal Victory Drive Tesla’s Rally
Tesla’s intraday surge is fueled by two key catalysts: unsupervised robotaxi tests in Austin, Texas, and the Delaware Supreme Court’s reinstatement of Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package. Social media videos of Model Y robotaxis operating without human oversight have reignited speculation about the Cybercab’s 2026 launch. Meanwhile, the court ruling removes a lingering cloud over Musk’s compensation, signaling stability for leadership. These developments, combined with the stock trading near its 52-week high, have attracted speculative buying, particularly in leveraged ETFs and call options.

Automotive Sector Faces Supplier Pressures as BYD Gains Ground
The automotive sector is under pressure from falling orders, Chinese competition, and high costs, with suppliers at risk of bankruptcy in 2026. BYD, the sector leader, has seen a 0.74% intraday gain, reflecting its dominance in low-cost EVs. Tesla’s rally, however, is more product-driven than sector-linked, as its EV sales have declined 7% year-to-date. While BYD’s affordability challenges Tesla’s market share, the latter’s focus on robotaxi and Optimus robotics keeps it insulated from near-term sector headwinds.

Options and ETFs Highlight Bullish Momentum Amid High Volatility
• MACD: 13.67 (above signal line 9.28), RSI: 67.93 (neutral), 200D MA: $351.10 (well below price).
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $493.53 near upper band ($497.10), indicating overbought conditions.
• Support/Resistance: 30D support at $428.63, 200D resistance at $430.92 (price far above).

Leveraged ETFs: ProShares Ultra TSLA (TSLI, +5.6%) and T-Rex 2X Long Tesla (TSLT, +5.3%) are amplifying bullish momentum. The 52-week high at $498.82 is a critical level to watch for a breakout. For options, two contracts stand out:

• TSLA20251226C495: Call option with strike $495, expiring 12/26. IV: 33.96% (moderate), Leverage: 68.99%, Delta: 0.479 (moderate), Theta: -2.689 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0203 (high sensitivity). Turnover: $68.46M. A 5% upside to $518.16 would yield a payoff of $23.16 per share, or 46.3% return on the $50.21 premium.
• TSLA20251226C500: Call option with strike $500, expiring 12/26. IV: 34.27% (moderate), Leverage: 95.79%, Delta: 0.3815 (moderate), Theta: -2.277 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0193 (high sensitivity). Turnover: $85.39M. A 5% upside to $518.16 would yield a payoff of $18.16 per share, or 36.1% return on the $50.21 premium.

These options offer high leverage and liquidity, ideal for aggressive bulls betting on a sustained rally. However, theta decay and gamma sensitivity mean rapid price swings could amplify gains or losses. Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider TSLA20251226C495 into a breakout above $495.

Backtest Tesla Stock Performance
The backtest of Tesla (TSLA) following a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows a strategy return of 13.45%, with a benchmark return of 42.97% and an excess return of -29.52%. The strategy has a CAGR of 3.27% and a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, indicating a volatile but potentially profitable performance.

Tesla’s Rally Hinges on Robotaxi Progress – Act Now Before Volatility Fades
Tesla’s current rally is a blend of regulatory clarity and product hype, but sustainability depends on robotaxi progress and EV demand recovery. The 52-week high at $498.82 is a critical psychological level; a break above could trigger a retest of $515, while a pullback to $485 may reignite buying. Investors should monitor the sector leader BYD (0.74% up) for competitive cues. For immediate action, leveraged ETFs like TSLI or high-leverage options like TSLA20251226C495 offer aggressive exposure, but caution is warranted given the stock’s 312 P/E ratio. Watch for $495 breakout or regulatory updates on FSD approval.