Tesla's (TSLA.US) Q3 delivery was slightly lower than expected, but Model 3/Y was hotter than expected! Can Robotaxi activities cause another frenzy?

Tesla (TSLA.US) delivered 462,890 vehicles in Q3, slightly below the market's expectation of 463,897, mainly due to the lack of effective demand for its older models despite incentives and low-cost financing. However, its Model3/Y deliveries reached 439,975, exceeding the market's expectations. Tesla's stock price fell 4.25% in early trading, but has still risen over 20% in the past six weeks, mainly driven by the expected Robotaxi event. Meanwhile, Lucid Group (LCID.US) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) also saw volatility.

Tesla produced 469,796 vehicles in Q3, with 3% of total deliveries affected by operating lease accounting. The company delivered 439,975 Model3/Ys, exceeding the market's expectation of 435,920, while other models delivered 22,915, below the market's expectation of 26,315. Tesla's deliveries grew year-on-year, with 435,059 vehicles delivered in Q3 last year compared to 443,956 vehicles in Q2. Tesla's all-time high delivery record was 484,507 vehicles in Q4 2023.

Looking ahead, Tesla is expected to host a Robotaxi event titled "We, Robot" on October 10, where it may showcase a Cybercab prototype, a two-door sedan with a front that resembles the Model3. Elon Musk and his team may also provide more information on the size of the Robotaxi market, the timeline for achieving fully autonomous FSD, the potential of incremental AI-driven revenue, and other applications of the company's robot technology.

Despite Tesla's slightly lower-than-expected deliveries in Q3, the Model3/Y deliveries exceeded expectations, showing strong demand for the company's key models. The upcoming Robotaxi event and outlook on the Robotaxi market may provide more clues for Tesla's future development.