Tesla's Q3 Deliveries Beat Estimates, Stock Whipsaws Amid Tax Credit Concerns.

Tesla reported 497,099 vehicle deliveries in Q3, beating estimates of 447,600. Sales may have benefited from customers rushing to buy EVs before the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit. However, momentum could fade now that the tax credit is no longer available. Tesla stock initially jumped 2% but reversed gains to trade lower by 0.5%.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) on Thursday reported that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025, marking a 7.4% year-over-year increase and its highest quarterly deliveries to date. The company surpassed estimates of 447,600 deliveries, as per FactSet, reported by CNBC Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Hit Quarterly Record, Rise 7% To Exceed Analyst Estimates^[1].

The surge in deliveries was likely driven by customers rushing to purchase electric vehicles (EVs) before the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit on September 30. Tesla sold 481,166 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, while only 15,933 units of its premium offerings were sold. The company produced 447,450 vehicles and deployed 12.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage products, marking an 81% year-over-year growth Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Hit Quarterly Record, Rise 7% To Exceed Analyst Estimates^[1].

Tesla shares initially jumped 3% in the pre-market session but reversed gains to trade lower by 0.5%. Retail sentiment around TSLA stock on Stocktwits shifted from 'neutral' to 'bullish' over the past 24 hours, with message volume staying at 'normal' levels Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Hit Quarterly Record, Rise 7% To Exceed Analyst Estimates^[1].

Despite the strong Q3 performance, Tesla faces significant headwinds in the fourth quarter and beyond without the federal tax credit incentive. Analyst price targets for the stock range widely, from $115 to $600, with an average target of $345.50, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the company’s valuation Tesla Stock Momentum Faces Valuation Test Despite Historic Q3 Performance^[2].

The expiration of the tax credit policy has also led to a price adjustment for Tesla’s leasing plans. The monthly lease for Tesla’s best-selling Model Y increased from $479-$529 to $529-$599, while the Model 3's monthly lease rose from $349-$699 to $429-$759. However, the retail prices of all models remain unchanged Tesla Raises Lease Prices for Model 3/Y as U.S. EV Subsidies Phase Out^[3].

Tesla's stock has risen 14% this year and by approximately 85% over the past 12 months. The company's best quarterly delivery performance before Q3 was in the fourth quarter of 2024, when it delivered 495,570 vehicles Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Hit Quarterly Record, Rise 7% To Exceed Analyst Estimates^[1].