Tesla Q3 Deliveries: A Catalyst for Stock Growth

Tesla's (TSLA) third-quarter delivery figures, set to be released next week, are expected to drive further strength in the company's stock price. Despite a challenging year, Tesla shares have rebounded, with analysts bullish on the upcoming quarterly results.

Tesla's stock price has shown resilience, climbing more than 16% in September after a 7.7% decline in August. The stock is now slightly up on the year, having rebounded over 80% from a late-April low. This performance can be attributed to robust China sales and the company's full self-driving rollout plans.

Analysts are optimistic about Tesla's Q3 delivery figures, with consensus estimates projecting 461,000 units, up 6% year-over-year. This total would represent the third-best quarterly delivery total ever for Tesla, behind Q2 2023's 466,000 and Q4 2023's record-setting 485,000 deliveries. Barclays expects Q3 deliveries to total 470,000 vehicles, well above the consensus estimate.

Tesla's China registrations, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up 20% compared to last quarter and have increased more than 18% year-over-year. The company is on track for its best-ever quarterly deliveries in China, with registrations up 1% above its previous best quarterly performance in the country.

Tesla's China registrations have been boosted by continued five-year, zero-interest loans to buyers, as well as increased government subsidies for EVs. The Cybertruck has also supported demand in the U.S., contributing to higher estimates for the quarter. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter expects Tesla to deliver over 175,000 units in China during Q3.

Tesla's stock price has a strong correlation with its quarterly delivery figures. As the company continues to grow its sales, particularly in China, investors can expect further strength in the stock price. While Europe has been a weak spot for Tesla, the company's robust performance in China and the U.S. should offset any shortfalls.

Tesla's upcoming robotaxi event on Oct. 10 and Q3 earnings on Oct. 16 are likely to generate additional buzz and drive further stock price growth. With a busy October ahead, investors should keep a close eye on Tesla's Q3 delivery figures and their impact on the company's stock price.