Tesla's Q2 Deliveries and the Robotaxi Pivot: Is the Stock a Buy at $300?

The electric vehicle (EV) market is undergoing a seismic shift, and Tesla's recent struggles highlight the growing pains of a once-unrivaled industry leader. After reporting a 14% year-over-year decline in Q2 2025 deliveries to 384,122 units—its second consecutive quarterly drop—investors are left to ponder: Can Tesla's autonomous driving ambitions, such as its Robotaxi service, offset fading demand and sustain its premium valuation? Let's dissect the data and decide whether $300 is a fair price for Tesla's stock.

The Near-Term Delivery Dilemma

Tesla's Q2 delivery figures underscore a troubling trend. While production held steady near 410,000 units, deliveries lagged, with Model S/X and Cybertruck sales plummeting 52% year-over-year. Competitors like BYD (sales up 42.5% to 606,993 units in Q2) and GM (EV sales doubling to 46,280) are eroding Tesla's market share. The culprit? A combination of stiff competition from affordable Chinese EVs, delayed impact of the refreshed Model Y (released in March 2025), and political headwinds tied to Elon Musk's public clashes with U.S. policymakers.

Yet Tesla's cash reserves remain robust at $35 billion, and Q1 2025 operating cash flow surged 791% to $2.15 billion. This financial cushion provides runway to invest in its next-phase growth: autonomous driving.

The Robotaxi Pivot: A Lifeline or Overhyped Hype?

Tesla's long-term narrative hinges on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and the Robotaxi service, slated to launch in Austin, Texas, later in 2025. While FSD has yet to deliver material revenue—Q3 2025 FSD revenue hit $326 million, up from earlier quarters—the software's potential is undeniable. With over 2 billion miles driven on FSD and Musk's claim that it's now “safer than a human driver,” Tesla's data advantage could cement its lead in autonomous tech.

The Robotaxi service, which will use Tesla's new camera-based autonomy stack, aims to turn Tesla vehicles into revenue-generating mobility assets. Musk has targeted a 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for FSD subscriptions by 2027, with robotaxi services adding $2–3 billion in annual revenue. However, execution risks abound: regulatory approvals in key markets like California and Texas are pending, and technical hurdles remain.

Valuation: Overpriced or Underappreciated?

Tesla's valuation multiples are still elevated compared to peers. As of Q1 2025:
- P/E ratio: 126.77 (down from 181.57 in Q4 2024 but up from 37.98 in mid-2024)
- P/S ratio: 8.44 (down from 13.18 in March 2025 but still above GM's 0.6 and BYD's 2.3)
- P/BV ratio: 10.82 (a decline from 38.04 in 2021 but still premium)

Analysts at Zacks have issued a "Strong Sell" rating, citing a projected 2% revenue decline and 22% EPS drop for 2025. Yet bulls argue that Tesla's valuation overlooks its strategic assets:
1. FSD's data moat: 2 million vehicles generating real-world driving data.
2. Energy storage dominance: Deployed 9.6 GWh in Q2 2025, a 2% year-over-year increase.
3. The affordable "Redwood" Model Q: Delayed to 2026, but its $25,000 price tag could revive sales in emerging markets.

Risks to the Narrative

• Regulatory roadblocks: The EU's strict autonomous vehicle regulations and Musk's political liabilities (e.g., disputes with the U.S. government over subsidies) could slow progress.
• Execution delays: The Model Q's postponement and Cybertruck's production woes highlight Tesla's tendency to overpromise.
• Competitor pressure: BYD's scale and GM's EV momentum threaten Tesla's pricing power.

The Bottom Line: Hold for Now, but Watch for Catalysts

At $300, Tesla's stock trades at a 22% year-to-date decline, reflecting investor skepticism. While its autonomous vision is compelling, the path to monetization remains unproven. Bulls will point to FSD's scalability and the Redwood Model Q's potential; bears will cite weak deliveries and overvaluation relative to peers.

Recommendation: Hold Tesla stock at $300. The stock's valuation is too rich to call it a "buy" until we see concrete milestones:
- Q3 2025 results showing FSD revenue surpassing $400 million.
- Robotaxi regulatory approvals in key markets by late 2025.
- Model Q production ramp-up by mid-2026.

Tesla's future lies in its ability to transform from a car company into a software and services powerhouse. Until then, investors should remain cautious but keep an eye on autonomous driving's progress—this is a long game.

Final Thought: Tesla's stock is a bet on the future of mobility. At $300, the price is neither dirt cheap nor exorbitant, but its success hinges on executing its autonomous vision flawlessly. For now, patience is the better part of valor.