Tesla’s Options Signal Bullish Breakout Potential: Focus on $500 Call and $170 Put as AI-Driven Momentum Builds

• Tesla (TSLA) trades at $482.88, down 1.43% from its $489.88 close, amid a volatile session with a high of $495.24 and low of $482.35.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at the $500 strike (OI: 68,313) and puts at $170 (OI: 37,835), signaling a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
• Goldman Sachs’ $400 price target clashes with Wedbush’s $3 trillion vision, as robotaxi tests and Musk’s AI bets fuel debate.

Here’s the core insight: Tesla’s options market is bullish but cautious. Call open interest dominates (put/call ratio: 0.85), yet technicals hint at a potential pullback. The key question is whether the $500 call wall will hold or if the $485 support becomes a battleground.Bullish signs are strong, but risks linger. The stock’s 121% rally from April lows has pushed RSI to 81.38—overbought territory. Yet the 30D and 200D moving averages ($434 vs. $348) still trend upward. The challenge? A breakdown below $485 could trigger a test of the $428 support zone.The Options Playbook: Calls at $500, Puts at $170, and What Block Trades Reveal

The options market is split. For this Friday’s expirations, the $500 call (OI: 68,313) and $170 put (OI: 37,835) are the most watched. This suggests a key inflection point: bulls are betting on a $500+ breakout, while bears are hedging a drop to $170. The next Friday’s $510 call (OI: 39,114) adds to the bullish narrative, but the $260 put (OI: 21,572) hints at caution.

Block trades tell a mixed story. A $3.8M call block at TSLA20250919C380 (expiring in September 2025) and a $1.9M put block at TSLA20260116P410 (expiring in January 2026) suggest long-term positioning. These trades aren’t about short-term noise—they’re about betting on Tesla’s AI-driven future. But the $1.3M call block at TSLA20250919C400 (September 2025) also shows confidence in near-term momentum.

News and AI: Why the Market Can’t Look Away

Tesla’s robotaxi tests in Austin and Musk’s $100M pay package are fueling the bullish case. Analysts like Wedbush see a $3 trillion valuation by 2026, but Goldman Sachs remains skeptical, citing margin pressures. The reality? Both are right. The stock’s short-term rally hinges on execution risks (robotaxi scaling, regulatory hurdles), while the long-term story is about AI-driven revenue streams. Retail investors are buying into the narrative, but institutional caution is evident in the put/call ratio imbalance.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $500, Stock Entry at $485For options traders: Buy the TSLA20251226C500 call (next Friday’s $500 strike) if the stock breaks above $495. The $500 level is a psychological wall with heavy open interest—breaking it could trigger a cascade of stop-losses and momentum. Alternatively, sell the TSLA20251226P170 put if the price dips below $470, but cap risk with a tight stop.For stock traders: Consider entry near $485 if the 30D support (428.63–430.61) holds. A breakout above $495 targets $500, while a breakdown below $485 points to a test of $470. Use the $485 level as a pivot—bulls need to defend it, bears to break it.Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Reality

Tesla’s story is no longer just about EVs—it’s about AI and robotics. The robotaxi pilot is a milestone, but scaling to 1 million units by 2035 (per Morgan Stanley) is a moonshot. The stock’s near-term direction depends on whether the market buys the AI narrative or reverts to profit-taking. For now, the $500 call and $170 put are the litmus test. If bulls hold, the rally continues. If not, the $428 support becomes critical.

Final takeaway: Tesla’s options and technicals paint a picture of a stock at a crossroads. The AI-driven bullish case is compelling, but overbought conditions and regulatory risks can’t be ignored. Focus on the $500 call and $485 support—those levels will tell the story of the next leg of this rally.