Tesla Drops 3.91% Amid Bearish Technical Signals As 315 Support Holds Key

Tesla (TSLA) declined by 3.91% in the latest session, closing at 316.25 after trading between 314.75 and 327.26. This movement occurred on above-average volume of 81.98 million shares, continuing recent volatility.
Candlestick Theory
The daily chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern formed on June 17, 2025, with the body completely overcoming the prior day’s gains. This occurred near the critical support zone of 315-320, previously established during consolidation in late May. Resistance is now evident at 330 (June 16 high) and 345-350 (early June peak), while failure to hold 315 suggests vulnerability to further downside.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately 316) aligns precisely with Tesla’s latest close, indicating immediate equilibrium. The 100-day SMA (near 305) and 200-day SMA (around 285) maintain upward slopes, preserving the longer-term uptrend. However, the 50-day SMA’s flattening and price’s repeated failures to sustain above it since early June hint at deteriorating medium-term momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits a bearish crossover below its signal line, with the histogram expanding negatively since June 5 – the signature of accelerating downward momentum. KDJ’s K-line (15) and D-line (22) are deeply oversold (<30), while J-line (-0.5) shows extreme compression. This divergence between oversold KDJ and bearish MACD suggests potential for a technical rebound despite prevailing selling pressure.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted markedly through late May before expanding during June’s volatility surge. Price currently presses against the lower band (near 310), a zone that triggered reversals in March and May. Bandwidth remains elevated at 12%, reflecting ongoing nervousness, but the absence of new price lows beneath the band may indicate near-term exhaustion of sellers.
Volume-Price Relationship
Down days since June 10 have featured lower volume than the preceding rally’s up days (e.g., 122.6M shares on June 10 advance vs. 81.98M on June 17 decline), diminishing conviction in the selloff. However, June 5’s capitulatory 292M-share collapse established an ominous high-volume resistance anchor near 325.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (34) resides near oversold territory but hasn’t breached 30, avoiding classical reversal signals. This aligns with June’s stair-step decline where RSI consistently rejected rebounds near 55 – a pattern characteristic of downtrends. A decisive move above 40 RSI would be needed to signal momentum recovery.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the March swing low (180) and June peak (349), key retracements cluster around 315 (38.2%) and 308 (50%). The 315 level intersected with the 50-day SMA and June 17 low, creating a technical inflection zone. A close below 308 would shift focus to the 61.8% retracement near 295.
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals emerges between: the death cross in MACD, price rejection at declining VWAP, and repeated failures at the 50-day SMA. This contrasts with oversold KDJ and positive volume divergence. The alignment of Bollinger support, Fibonacci 38.2% level, and volume-based pivot at 315 establishes a critical battle zone, where sustained breach below 315 may trigger accelerated selling toward 295. Conversely, reclaiming 325 could invalidate the near-term downtrend.