Tesla's Delivery Dance: Will 500k Be the Bullseye That Boosts the Stock?

As Tesla gears up to release its fourth-quarter delivery numbers, all eyes are on whether the automaker can surpass the anticipated 500,000 mark. Market anticipation is palpable, with Wall Street estimating approximately 507,000 vehicles delivered in the fourth quarter. This figure, although slightly below the requirement to outpace 2023's total deliveries of 1.81 million vehicles, points toward a challenging yet possible target. Tesla would need to deliver about 515,000 vehicles this quarter to avoid its first annual sales decline.

Notably, Tesla's growth signals are evident despite the hurdles. In the previous quarter's financial report, the company forecasted an expansion in sales. Since then, analysts tracked by FactSet have adjusted their consensus for fourth-quarter deliveries from just below 500,000 to about 505,000, with Tesla's own consensus forecast slightly higher at 507,000. These numbers fall short of the necessary 515,000, however, some investors, like Gary Black of the Future Fund Active ETF, believe exceeding 500,000 will suffice in meeting market expectations.

Should these viewpoints hold, a delivery figure above 500,000 — even if missing consensus forecasts — might buoy Tesla's stock, which has surged over 60% in 2024. The stock's recent rise was largely driven by post-election optimism, rather than immediate delivery outcomes. The real focus for investors now shifts towards Tesla's 2025 aspirations, including a new, lower-cost EV and an autonomous robo-taxi service, potentially bolstered by a regulatory environment under the incoming administration.

Regardless of the final delivery figures, these strategic developments are the pivotal elements that will determine Tesla's ability to sustain strong stock performance across subsequent years. Investors remain optimistic about Tesla's long-term trajectory, underpinned by the planned introduction of new vehicle models and innovative technologies. These expectations overshadow immediate delivery results, framing Tesla's narrative around its future growth prospects and technological advancements in the rapidly evolving automotive industry.