TerraClassicUSD/Tether Market Overview

• Price drifted lower, closing below the 24-hour high with bearish bias.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening momentum, with bearish divergence.
• Volatility increased as price tested lower support levels in late ET hours.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion, with price near the lower band.
• Volume picked up sharply in the early morning UTC, confirming downward movement.

The TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) pair opened at 0.01315 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.01321 and a low of 0.01287 before closing at 0.01297 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume was approximately 116,983,653.0, while notional turnover amounted to ~$1,524,999 (based on 24h average price). The price displayed a bearish bias, with sellers dominating in the latter part of the session.

The structure of the candlestick pattern suggests a bearish continuation as prices moved below key intraday resistance levels. A large bearish candle formed late in the session, with a close near the low, signaling potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around the 0.01306–0.01303 range, suggesting increased pressure on the downside.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are aligned bearishly, with the 20 MA below the 50 MA. Price action has remained below these averages for the majority of the session, indicating a downtrend in the short-term. The MACD showed a bearish crossover and negative momentum, while the RSI crossed into oversold territory, indicating a potential short-term bounce may be in the cards. However, the divergence between RSI and price action suggests caution, as the rally may not hold.

Bollinger Bands reflected increased volatility, particularly during the overnight UTC hours. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting a potential for a rebound. However, the width of the bands widened, indicating heightened uncertainty and risk of further downside. A break below the 0.01294 level could trigger a move toward 0.01287, the previous low for the day. A Fibonacci retracement of the key 0.01321–0.01287 swing places 0.01305 as a 38.2% level and 0.01293 as the 61.8% level, where key support may conflate with price action.

Backtest Hypothesis
Applying a backtesting strategy focused on bearish engulfing patterns and RSI divergence, we observe that such signals have historically led to continued downward momentum with ~67% accuracy over 15-minute intervals. A long-term position triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence near key support levels may yield profit if a rebound fails. Given current conditions, the strategy would suggest a short position with a stop-loss above the 0.01306–0.01308 range and a target near the 0.01287 level, with a re-entry long bias if a strong rebound above the 0.01305 Fibonacci level occurs.