Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) Surges 21.8% on Unprecedented CML Trial Data – What’s Next for the Biotech?

Summary
• Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) rockets 21.8% intraday to $17.09, hitting its 52-week high of $18.74.
• Phase 1 data for TERN-701 in CML shows 75% cumulative MMR at 24 weeks, with no dose-limiting toxicities.
• Company to present findings at ASH 2025 on December 8, followed by an investor webcast.
• TERN’s pivot from metabolic disease to oncology post-TERN-601 discontinuation sharpens focus on CML program.

The stock’s explosive move reflects investor optimism over TERN-701’s potential to redefine CML treatment. With 55 patients enrolled in the CARDINAL trial and robust safety data, Terns now hinges its near-term value on clinical milestones. The ASH presentation and December webcast will be critical junctures for sentiment.

Breakthrough CML Data Ignites Biotech Rally
Terns Pharmaceuticals’ 21.8% surge stems from unprecedented Phase 1 results for TERN-701 in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). The CARDINAL trial reported a 75% cumulative major molecular response (MMR) rate by 24 weeks in 32 efficacy-evaluable patients, with 64% achieving MMR and 100% maintaining it. These outcomes, achieved in heavily pretreated patients with median of 3 prior tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), far exceed benchmarks for existing therapies. The safety profile—87% treatment retention, no dose-limiting toxicities, and low-grade adverse events—further validates TERN-701’s potential. The ASH 2025 presentation and December 8 investor webcast amplify near-term catalysts, driving speculative and institutional buying.

Pharma Sector Mixed as Terns Outpaces Peers
While Terns’ 21.8% gain dominates headlines, the broader pharmaceutical sector remains fragmented. Sector leader Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) edged up 0.57%, reflecting steady but unremarkable performance. TERN’s oncology-focused rally contrasts with AbbVie’s $60.9B revenue forecast and Gilead’s PrEP-driven optimism, underscoring biotech’s appetite for high-risk, high-reward assets. TERN’s CML data, however, position it as a niche play with best-in-class potential, diverging from large-cap pharma’s diversified but slower-moving pipelines.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on TERN’s Volatility
• RSI: 80.45 (overbought), MACD: 0.58 (bullish), 200D MA: $4.99 (far below price).
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $17.09 exceeds upper band ($11.16), signaling extreme overbought conditions.

TERN’s technicals scream short-term overextension, but the ASH presentation and December webcast offer catalysts to sustain momentum. Key levels to watch: $18.74 (52W high) and $15.5 (intraday low). A breakout above $18.74 could trigger a retest of the $20 psychological level, while a pullback to $15.5 may attract buyers.

Top Options Picks:
• TERN20251121C17 (Call, $17 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 156.19% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 7.14%
- Delta: 0.575 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.081 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.066 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 11,034 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($17.90): $0.90/share. This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5% rally ahead of ASH.

• TERN20251121C18 (Call, $18 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 143.90%
- Leverage: 9.48%
- Delta: 0.499 (modest sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.075 (high decay)
- Gamma: 0.073 (strong gamma)
- Turnover: 18,536 (highly liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($17.90): $0.00 (strike not reached). While less immediate, this option gains value if TERN surges past $18.74.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider TERN20251121C17 into a breakout above $18.74. Conservative traders should monitor the ASH presentation for directional clarity.

Backtest Terns Stock Performance
Below is the event–driven back-test you requested. The canvas on the right contains the full interactive report; key take-aways are summarized underneath.Key observations1. Sample size is limited (4 occurrences), so statistical power is low—the t-tests reported “not significant” across all horizons.2. Short-term (1–3 trading-day) drift averaged ≈ 5–6 %, with a 75 % win rate, suggesting some immediate follow-through after a large intraday spike.3. Momentum peaked around day 20, where the average cumulative excess return reached ~24 %, handily beating the benchmark by ≈ 19 pp.4. Volatility remained high; post-event drawdowns of −6 % to −8 % were observed between days 10–15 before the trend resumed, implying active risk management is essential.5. Because the events cluster in 2022–early 2023, the test does not capture the most recent 2024–2025 trading regime. Ongoing monitoring is advisable.Parameter notes (auto-filled)• Event definition: (high − open) / open ≥ 22 %. • Holding window: +30 trading days, a common horizon for momentum decay studies. • Price series: close price. These defaults can be adjusted on request.Feel free to explore the interactive module for full day-by-day metrics and let me know if you’d like deeper cuts (e.g., different windows, risk-adjusted measures, or strategy-style back-tests).

TERN’s ASH Presentation: A Make-or-Break Moment for Biotech
Terns Pharmaceuticals’ 21.8% surge hinges on the durability of TERN-701’s Phase 1 results and the ASH 2025 presentation. While technicals suggest overbought conditions, the biotech’s singular focus on CML and lack of revenue make it a high-risk, high-reward play. Investors must weigh the potential of TERN-701 against the company’s financial constraints and reliance on a single asset. Sector leader Johnson & Johnson’s 0.57% gain highlights the broader pharma sector’s stability, but TERN’s volatility offers a chance for outsized returns. Watch the December 8 webcast for updated data and sentiment shifts.