Tenaris Gains 5.57% on Bullish Technical Indicators MACD Crossover and Bollinger Band Expansion Signal Uptrend

Tenaris (TS) is currently trading at 40.59, up 3.89% for the day, marking two consecutive days of gains with a cumulative rise of 5.57%. The recent price action suggests a short-term bullish momentum, supported by volume spikes and key technical inflections.
Candlestick Theory

The recent two-day rally forms a Bullish Engulfing pattern, with the second day’s body fully covering the previous session’s bearish candle. This signals potential continuation of the uptrend. Key support levels are identified at 38.45 (prior 5-day consolidation) and 37.76 (December 19 low), while resistance clusters near 40.89 (January 5 high) and 41.34 (December 4 peak). A breakdown below 38.45 could trigger a retest of the 35.79 (October 24 low) Fibonacci level.

Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approximately 38.7) and 100-day MA (around 36.5) are above the 200-day MA (~34.7), indicating a multi-timeframe bullish bias. However, the 50-day MA is flattening, suggesting potential exhaustion in the short-term trend. A break above 41.34 could realign the 50-day MA upward, reinforcing the uptrend, while a close below 38.45 risks a bearish crossover with the 100-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, confirming short-term bullish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows %K at 78 and %D at 72, nearing overbought territory. While this may indicate a pullback, the divergence between %K and %D is narrowing, suggesting sustained buying pressure. A close above 41.34 could extend the uptrend, but a failure to hold 39.07 (January 2 low) may trigger a bearish KDJ crossover.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to 1.33 (width). The current price sits near the upper band at 40.89, indicating overbought conditions. A sustained close above this level may trigger a continuation of the uptrend, while a retest of the lower band at 38.3 (December 26 low) could signal consolidation. The recent band contraction in mid-December preceded the current rally, aligning with the breakout.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume surged to 3.37 million shares on the recent rally, a 2.1x increase from the 1.57 million average over the past 10 days. This validates the strength of the price action. However, volume has not yet surpassed the 4.5 million level seen during the October 30 breakout, suggesting caution in extrapolating sustainability. Divergence may emerge if volume declines while prices continue to rise.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI stands at 68, approaching overbought territory. While this does not guarantee a reversal, it suggests a potential correction to the 50–60 range. The RSI has formed a bullish divergence with price from the December 19 low, reinforcing the uptrend. A close above 70 would confirm overbought conditions, but historical data shows the stock has historically retraced 10–15% after such levels.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key Fibonacci levels from the October 30 low (35.79) to the December 4 high (41.59) include 61.8% at 39.86 and 50% at 38.69. The current price of 40.59 is near the 61.8% retracement level, acting as a dynamic resistance. A break above this may target the 78.6% level at 40.89, while a failure to hold 38.69 risks a retest of the 38.45 support.
Conclusion
Confluence of bullish signals—Bullish Engulfing candles, MACD crossover, and expanding Bollinger Bands—suggest a high probability of continued upward movement, provided volume sustains above 3 million shares. However, overbought RSI and KDJ levels caution against aggressive long positions without confirmation above 41.34. Divergences between volume and price remain a watchpoint, as do potential Fibonacci retracement levels for risk management.