Tempus AI Surges 0.48%—Is This the Dawn of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Tempus AI (TEM) reports Q2 revenue of $314.6M, up 89.6% YoY
• Adjusted EBITDA turns positive at $5M, a $110M improvement YoY
• Stock trades at $59.02, down from intraday high of $65.73

Tempus AI’s shares edged higher on August 8, 2025, as the company unveiled a blockbuster Q2 earnings report. With revenue surging 89.6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA turning positive, the stock’s intraday range—from $58.56 to $65.73—reflects a volatile but optimistic market response. Investors are now weighing whether this momentum can sustain amid a broader healthcare sector rally.

Q2 Earnings Spark Optimism Amid Strategic Debt Moves
Tempus AI’s 0.48% intraday gain follows a Q2 earnings report that highlighted 89.6% revenue growth to $314.6 million, driven by 115.3% growth in genomics and 35.7% in data services. The company’s $750 million convertible notes offering, which replaces higher-cost debt, has bolstered investor confidence. Additionally, the 82.1% year-over-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA to $5.6 million (a $25.6 million improvement) and raised 2025 revenue guidance to $1.26 billion have positioned the stock for a near-term rebound.

Healthcare Sector Rally Gains Momentum as Tempus AI Trails UnitedHealth
The broader healthcare sector, led by UnitedHealth Group (UNH), saw a 1.33% intraday gain, outpacing Tempus AI’s 0.48% move. UNH’s performance reflects strong demand for managed care services amid a post-pandemic healthcare rebound. While Tempus’s AI-driven diagnostics and data partnerships are gaining traction, its stock remains under pressure from a 52-week low of $31.36 and a negative dynamic PE ratio (-37.57), contrasting with the sector’s positive momentum.

TEMT ETF and Options Playbook: Navigating Volatility with Precision
• MACD: -1.25 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: -1.04, Histogram: -0.21 (negative momentum)
• RSI: 46.31 (oversold territory)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $64.97, Middle $59.15, Lower $53.34 (price near lower band)
• 200D MA: $54.57 (price above long-term support)

Tempus AI’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound is likely, with key resistance at $64.97 and support at $53.34. The Tradr 2X Long TEM Daily ETF (TEMT), trading at $17.84, offers leveraged exposure to a potential breakout. For options, two contracts stand out:

• TEM20250815C59 (Call)
- Strike: $59, Expiry: 2025-08-15
- IV: 81.24% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.526 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.326 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.056 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 157,138 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 20.70% (amplifies gains)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($61.97): $2.97/share (28.8% return).
- Why it works: High gamma and IV make this call ideal for a sharp rebound.

• TEM20250815P58 (Put)
- Strike: $58, Expiry: 2025-08-15
- IV: 76.47% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: -0.415 (moderate bearish bias)
- Theta: -0.022 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.058 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 18,206 (adequate liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 27.44% (amplifies downside protection)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($61.97): $3.97/share (34.5% return).
- Why it works: High gamma and moderate delta offer balanced risk-reward for a bullish scenario.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider TEM20250815C59 into a breakout above $60, while TEMT provides leveraged exposure to a broader sector rally.

Backtest Tempus AI Stock Performance
The TEM strategy showed positive short-to-medium-term performance following an intraday increase of at least 0.5%. The backtest data indicates that the 3-day win rate is 48.97%, the 10-day win rate is 52.41%, and the 30-day win rate is 55.17%, suggesting a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such an event. The maximum return observed was 18.29% over 30 days, indicating that there is potential for significant gains if the momentum from the intraday surge is sustained.

Bullish Setup Confirmed—Position for a Breakout Above $60
Tempus AI’s Q2 results and strategic debt moves have created a bullish technical setup, with RSI in oversold territory and price near Bollinger Bands’ lower bound. While the stock’s negative PE ratio and 52-week low suggest caution, the 82.1% improvement in adjusted EBITDA and raised guidance signal a turning point. Investors should watch for a sustained close above $60 to confirm the breakout. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth Group’s 1.33% gain underscores the healthcare sector’s strength, offering a benchmark for Tempus’s potential. Act now: Buy TEM20250815C59 or TEMT to capitalize on a near-term rally.