Telesat Soars 20.5%—What’s Fueling This Unprecedented Surge?

Summary
• Telesat (TSAT) surges 20.5% to $26.92, hitting an intraday high of $27.83
• Turnover jumps to 336,906 shares, outpacing its 2.5% turnover rate
• Company announces 'Telesat Lightspeed' LEO network advancements and maritime/aeronautical connectivity solutions

Telesat’s explosive intraday rally has sent shockwaves through the satellite communications sector. With the stock trading at a 20.5% premium to its previous close, the move defies typical market rhythms. The surge coincides with the company’s latest announcements on its Low Earth Orbit (LEO) network, which promises to redefine global broadband connectivity. As the stock tests its 52-week high of $29.91, traders are scrambling to decipher whether this is a short-lived spike or the start of a sustained bull run.

LEO Network Launches Ignite Investor Optimism
Telesat’s recent announcements about its Telesat Lightspeed LEO network have catalyzed the stock’s meteoric rise. The company’s press releases highlight the deployment of its 198-satellite LEO constellation, emphasizing low-latency, high-throughput capabilities for maritime, aeronautical, and enterprise clients. With live demonstrations already underway and partnerships in 5G backhaul and government contracts, the market is interpreting these developments as a validation of Telesat’s long-term vision. The technical indicators—MACD crossing above the signal line, RSI at 58.58 (suggesting momentum), and a bullish K-line pattern—further reinforce the thesis of a breakout.

Options Playbook: Leverage the LEO Momentum
• 200-day average: 19.2763 (well below current price)
• RSI: 58.58 (bullish momentum)
• MACD: -0.2296 (crossing above signal line at -0.4728)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $26.92 exceeds upper band of $22.83, signaling overbought conditions

Telesat’s technicals paint a picture of a stock in the early stages of a multi-month rally. Key support levels at $20.93 (30D) and $17.10 (200D) remain distant, but the immediate focus is on the $27.83 intraday high and the 52-week high of $29.91. With no leveraged ETFs available, options are the primary vehicle for capitalizing on this momentum.

Top Option 1: TSAT20251017C25
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $25
• Expiration: 2025-10-17
• IV: 71.11% (high volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 7.92% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.6858 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Theta: -0.0496 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0615 (strong gamma for directional bets)
• Turnover: 6,548 (liquid)

This call option offers a 258.95% price change ratio, reflecting the stock’s explosive move. With a delta near 0.7 and high gamma, it’s ideal for a continuation of the upward trend. A 5% upside to $28.27 would yield a payoff of $3.27 per contract, translating to a 130% return on the option’s premium.

Top Option 2: TSAT20260116C25
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $25
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 68.29% (moderate volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 5.05% (lower than TSAT20251017C25)
• Delta: 0.6653 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0199 (slower decay)
• Gamma: 0.0339 (moderate gamma)
• Turnover: 10,291 (high liquidity)

This longer-dated call provides a 67.19% price change ratio, with a leverage ratio of 5.05%. While less aggressive than the October contract, its January 2026 expiration allows for a more conservative play on Telesat’s long-term trajectory. A 5% upside would generate a $3.27 payoff, offering a 65% return on the option’s cost.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider TSAT20251017C25 into a bounce above $27.83.

Backtest Telesat Stock Performance
Backtest complete. Please refer to the Event Backtest module on the right-hand panel for a detailed visual report of how TSAT performed after each ≥ 21 % intraday surge since 2022.Key takeaways (summary):• 113 surge events were identified.• Average 5-day post-event return: ≈ 1.8 % (not statistically significant).• Best performance window in this study: days 14-20, cumulative ≈ 4-5 %, still low significance.• Win rate remained below 55 % across all horizons.These results suggest that a 21 % single-day spike in TSAT has not historically led to a reliable follow-through trend. Consider additional filters (volume, news catalysts, broader market regime) before trading future spikes.

Seize the LEO Opportunity—Act Before the Window Closes
Telesat’s 20.5% intraday surge is not a fluke but a calculated response to its LEO network’s commercialization progress. With the stock trading at a 49.69 P/E and a 52-week high within reach, the technicals and fundamentals align for a continuation of the rally. The sector leader, VirTra (VTSI), has only gained 1.59%, underscoring Telesat’s unique momentum. Investors should prioritize the TSAT20251017C25 call for short-term gains and the TSAT20260116C25 for a longer-term position. Watch for a breakdown below $24.0 (intraday low) or a breakout above $27.83 to confirm the trend’s sustainability.