Tehran planned to expand any future conflict across the region, targeting Gulf states and key economic infrastructure to raise the global cost of war

Tehran planned to expand any future conflict across the region, targeting Gulf states and key economic infrastructure to raise the global cost of war

Iran’s escalation of hostilities in the Persian Gulf has targeted critical economic infrastructure across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, aiming to amplify global costs and pressure regional and international actors to de-escalate the conflict. Iranian drone and missile strikes have damaged oil refineries, airports, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities, including Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City according to France 24. These attacks, alongside disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital conduit for 20% of global oil exports— threaten to drive up energy prices and destabilize regional trade.

Economic repercussions are already evident. Qatar suspended 20% of global LNG exports after strikes on its facilities, while Oman and Kuwait reported injuries and infrastructure damage according to Carnegie Endowment. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes has stranded hundreds of vessels, raising fears of prolonged supply chain disruptions. Oxford Economics estimates a moderate disruption could push oil prices to $80 per barrel in Q2 2026, with global GDP growth potentially reduced by 0.1 percentage points according to Oxford Economics.

The Gulf states, meanwhile, face dual challenges: defending against Iranian strikes while preserving their reputations as stable investment hubs. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have reinforced air defenses, but repeated attacks on Dubai’s data centers and Saudi oil infrastructure risk deterring foreign capital. Analysts warn that sustained conflict could undermine GCC efforts to diversify economies post-oil, particularly as global firms reassess risks in the region according to Atlantic Council.

Iran’s strategy hinges on leveraging economic interdependence to force concessions. By targeting energy and digital infrastructure, Tehran aims to amplify costs for the U.S., its Gulf allies, and global markets. However, the GCC’s collective response—ranging from diplomatic outreach to enhanced security coordination—may yet mitigate long-term damage, though the path to stability remains uncertain according to Carnegie Endowment.