TC Energy's Lower 2025 EPS Guidance and Dividend Hold: A Shift in Investment Narrative and Risk Profile

TC Energy recently reported a decrease in net income and lower 2025 EPS guidance, but maintained its common share dividend at CA$0.85. The lowered EPS outlook highlights balance sheet health and debt management as key risks under current conditions. Despite this, TC Energy's dividend stability will be closely watched by income-focused investors. The company's outlook anticipates revenues reaching CA$17.2 billion and earnings of CA$4.0 billion by 2028.

TC Energy Corporation recently reported its second quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a year-over-year decrease in net income to CA$861 million. The company also announced that its 2025 comparable earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be lower than 2024, highlighting the need for balance sheet health and debt management as key risks under current conditions [1].

Despite the lowered EPS outlook, TC Energy maintained its common share dividend at CA$0.85 for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, continuing its record of consistent shareholder returns. This dividend stability will be closely watched by income-focused investors, as it stands out as directly relevant to the recent financial results and earnings guidance [1].

TC Energy's outlook anticipates revenues reaching CA$17.2 billion and earnings of CA$4.0 billion by 2028. Achieving this would require annual revenue growth of 6.3%, but earnings are expected to decrease by CA$0.2 billion from current earnings of CA$4.2 billion [1].

The latest earnings report and lowered 2025 EPS outlook may not materially alter the biggest near-term catalyst, the progress and returns from major capital projects. However, investors should be aware that despite continued dividend payments, the long-term impact of elevated leverage and ongoing capital needs means that balance sheet health and debt management will remain crucial [1].

Eight Simply Wall St Community members have estimated TC Energy’s fair value from CA$25.40 to CA$73.76 per share, with 2025 EPS set to decline and balance sheet risks front of mind. Investors may want to compare these different outlooks before making decisions [1].

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-case-tc-energy-tsx-054342246.html