Tarsus Soars 9.4% on Explosive Clinical Momentum and Bullish Chart Signals – What's Next?

Summary
• Tarsus (TARS) surges 9.4% to $45.29, defying a -0.26% decline in sector leader Pfizer (PFE)
• XDEMVY sales hit $78.3M in Q1 2025, up 217% YoY, with 72,000 bottles dispensed
• 15-minute chart shows KDJ Golden Cross and Bullish Marubozu confirming short-term momentum

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally, with shares trading at $45.29 (up 9.4% from $41.40 close) as clinical progress and technical signals converge. The stock's 45.41 intraday high and 42.49 low reflect intense buying pressure amid a $408M cash hoard and $1.2B peak sales potential for XDEMVY. This surge follows a strategic shift in market dynamics and growing investor confidence in the company's pipeline.

XDEMVY's Commercial Success and Pipeline Catalysts Drive Tarsus Higher
Tarsus' 9.4% intraday surge is fueled by XDEMVY's Q1 2025 sales of $78.3 million (217% YoY growth) and 72,000 bottles dispensed. The stock's technicals reinforce this momentum: a KDJ Golden Cross on the 15-minute chart and a Bullish Marubozu pattern at $45.41 signal strong institutional buying. Clinical progress for TP-04 (Phase 2 for ocular rosacea) and TP-05 (Phase 2 for Lyme disease) adds long-term catalysts. With 90% payer coverage and 13,000+ prescribers, XDEMVY's commercial execution validates Tarsus' market access strategy.

Pharma Sector Mixed as Tarsus Outperforms on Clinical Execution
While the broader pharmaceutical sector shows mixed momentum (Pfizer down 0.26%), Tarsus' 9.4% rally is driven by unique catalysts. Unlike peers focused on me-too drugs, Tarsus targets $2B in market potential with XDEMVY (peak $1.2B) and TP-04 (peak $1.5B). The stock's 52W high of $57.28 and -18.9x P/E ratio highlight its undervaluation relative to pipeline potential. In contrast, sector peers like Seaport Therapeutics and One Biosciences report incremental updates without Tarsus' revenue momentum.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on Tarsus's Bullish Momentum
• 200-day MA: 46.08 (below), 100-day MA: 45.02 (bullish crossover)
• RSI: 54.67 (neutral), MACD: -0.3565 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 39.33 (lower), 41.97 (upper) – price at 45.29 (13% above upper band)

Technical indicators suggest TARS is in a short-term bullish trend despite long-term bearish bias. Key levels to watch: 41.46 support (accumulated volume pivot) and 45.41 resistance (intraday high). The 54.67 RSI indicates neutral momentum, while MACD divergence suggests potential continuation. For leveraged exposure, consider the following options:

• TARS20250815C50 (Call): Strike $50, Expiry 8/15, IV 56.88%, Leverage 37.48%, Delta 0.288, Theta -0.0606, Gamma 0.0473, Turnover $960. High leverage and moderate gamma make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $47.55).
• TARS20250815P45 (Put): Strike $45, Expiry 8/15, IV 72.74%, Leverage 12.49%, Delta -0.453, Theta -0.026, Gamma 0.043, Turnover $360. High IV and moderate delta provide downside protection if momentum stalls.

Aggressive bulls should target TARS20250815C50 into a retest of 41.46 support, while hedgers may pair TARS20250815P45 for a 37.48% leverage play. Watch for a breakdown below 41.46 or a breakout above 45.41 to confirm trend strength.

Backtest Tarsus Stock Performance
The backtest of TARS ETF after a 9% intraday surge shows mixed results. The 3-day win rate is 48.85%, the 10-day win rate is also 48.85%, and the 30-day win rate is 49.91%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.45% over 30 days, with a maximum return day at 25.

Buy TARS Now – Positioning for Multi-Bagger Potential in a High-Growth Pipeline Play
Tarsus' 9.4% rally is underpinned by XDEMVY's commercial execution and a $2B pipeline. The stock's 45.29 price (13% below 52W high) offers a margin of safety given $408M in cash and 13,000 prescribers. Technicals favor continuation above 41.46 support, with 45.41 as the next target. Sector leader Pfizer (PFE) down -0.26% highlights Tarsus' outperformance. Investors should buy TARS at 45.29 for a 3-5 year hold, leveraging the 217% YoY sales growth and $1.2B peak sales potential. Watch for a breakdown below 41.46 or a breakout above 45.41 to confirm trend direction.