Target (TGT) Plunges 1.79% to 2025 Low on Earnings Miss, Competitive Pressures

Shares of Target Corporation (TGT) fell 1.79% on Monday, marking its lowest level since May 2025, with an intraday drop of 1.97%. The decline reflects ongoing investor concerns over the retailer’s recent earnings performance and competitive positioning in the retail sector.

The stock’s underperformance stems from mixed financial results, particularly in Q2 2025. Despite revenue narrowly exceeding estimates by 1.2%, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) dropped 20.2% year-over-year to $2.05, missing analyst expectations. This earnings shortfall has eroded confidence, as TGT’s shares have fallen 38.7% over the past 52 weeks, lagging behind both the SPDR S&P Retail ETF and Walmart (WMT), which surged 30.6% in the same period.

Analysts highlight valuation metrics as a potential support, with TGT trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.67—well below the retail sector average. However, recent downward revisions to FY2025 earnings estimates, which now stand at $7.49, signal cautious sentiment. While projections for FY2026 show an 8.9% year-over-year increase, the near-term outlook remains clouded by revenue stagnation and rising operational costs. Same-day delivery services and digital expansion have provided some resilience, but inventory management challenges persist.

Short interest in TGT has risen by 10.14% month-over-month, with 3.76% of the float sold short, indicating growing bearish sentiment. Institutional ownership remains strong at 79.73%, but the absence of insider activity and mixed analyst ratings—35 of whom recommend a “Hold”—underscore uncertainty. A mean price target of $113.74 implies 24.2% upside potential, yet the stock’s 4.89% dividend yield remains a draw for income-focused investors despite recent EPS declines.

Looking ahead, TGT’s ability to reverse earnings declines and navigate macroeconomic headwinds will be critical. While its undervalued metrics and robust balance sheet offer long-term appeal, near-term volatility is likely to persist as the company works to address revenue stagnation and competitive pressures in a shifting retail landscape.