Target Stock Dips 0.58% Amid Technical Resistance At $100.25

Target (TGT) shares declined 0.58% to $98.65 in the latest session, trading between $98.14 and $99.66 against a backdrop of evolving technical conditions. The following analysis integrates multiple indicators to evaluate the stock’s trajectory, noting key confluences and divergences.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a consolidation pattern between $94.17 and $100.25. The June 23 hammer candle (low: $94.17, close: $96.53) signaled potential bullish reversal confirmation, supported by the subsequent three white soldiers pattern leading to a June 27 high of $100.25. However, rejection near the $100 psychological resistance and the latest bearish close at $98.65 reflect persistent selling pressure. Key support resides at $95.99–$96.00 (June 25 low), while resistance is firm at $100.25–$102.37 (June 10–27 highs). A sustained break below $96.00 could trigger bearish continuation.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approximated ~$97.50) flirts with a death cross below the 100-day MA (~$102.00), both trending downward beneath the declining 200-day MA (~$112.00). The current price remains below all three major averages, affirming the bearish primary trend. Recent attempts to reclaim the 50-day MA have lacked momentum, though a close above $99.50 could signal short-term bullish momentum and challenge the 100-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows a bullish crossover, with the MACD line ascending toward the signal line following the June 23 low. However, this occurs near the zero line, indicating weak momentum conviction. KDJ exhibits overbought conditions after recent gains, with the %K line at ~73. Potential bearish divergence is noted: price failed to breach $100.25 resistance on June 27, while KDJ peaked near 80. Confluence exists in neutral MACD and elevated KDJ, suggesting near-term consolidation or pullback risk before upward momentum resumes.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands contracted sharply in late June (bandwidth narrowing 20%), signaling reduced volatility and impending breakout. The June 23 rebound from the lower band ($94.17) propelled price toward the midline (~$97.00). Current positioning near the midline reflects equilibrium, with resistance at the upper band (~$101.00) and support at the lower band (~$93.50). A volatility expansion would support directional conviction; sustained trade above the midline may foreshadow an upper-band test.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends validate recent reversals: the June 27 surge to $99.23 occurred on 6.39M shares (above 30-day avg), confirming bullish participation. Conversely, the June 30 decline materialized on below-average volume (4.93M shares), suggesting limited bearish conviction. Volume divergence is apparent—higher volume on up days versus down days since the June 23 low—supporting accumulation near $94 support. However, resistance tests above $99 require volume expansion to sustain rallies.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (currently ~55) exited oversold territory following the June 23 rebound but remains neutral, avoiding overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) extremes. This aligns with price consolidation and implies balanced momentum. Bearishly, RSI failed to exceed 60 during the late June rally, diverging from higher price highs and indicating weakening upside momentum. Neutral RSI advises caution; decisive breaks above 60 or below 40 would signal directional bias.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the April–June decline (swing high: $105.77 on April 2; low: $87.35 on April 8) places the 61.8% retracement level at $98.73—precisely capping the June 27 high ($100.25) and aligning with current resistance. The stock’s rejection here and consolidation below $99 highlight this level as critical. Sustained trade above $98.73 could challenge the 78.6% level ($102.70), while failure exposes the 50% retracement ($96.56). Confluence with the $100 psychological barrier amplifies this resistance.
Conclusion
Technical indicators reflect a neutral-bearish stance with potential inflection points. Confluence exists at $98.73–$100.25 resistance (Fibonacci, psychological level, and recent high), where volume weakness and RSI divergence heighten rejection risks. Support at $95.99–$96.00 must hold to prevent retesting $94.17. Bullish momentum hinges on MACD confirmation and volume-backed closes above $99.00, while bearish breaks below $96.00 may accelerate selling. Given inter-indicator neutrality (e.g., RSI, Bollinger Bands), range-bound trading appears probable near-term.