Tapestry Stock Rises 0.81% To $98.43 With Bullish Technicals Intact

Candlestick Theory
Tapestry (TPR) exhibits a robust short-term uptrend, closing at $98.43 (+0.81%) on July 11, marking its third consecutive bullish candle. This sequence includes a decisive breakout candle on July 9 (+3.36%) with high volume, confirming buyer momentum. Key support now resides at $95.50 (prior resistance-turned-support from July 8-9 lows), while resistance is evident near the psychological $100 level. The July 11 candle’s small upper wick suggests lingering selling pressure near $98.65, requiring monitoring for potential exhaustion.
Moving Average Theory
The stock trades significantly above its major moving averages (50-DMA: $73.12, 100-DMA: $70.24, 200-DMA: $63.71), confirming a sustained long-term bullish trend. The 50-DMA has consistently acted as dynamic support during pullbacks (e.g., May-June consolidation). Crucially, the 50-DMA maintains a bullish crossover above both the 100-DMA and 200-DMA, reinforcing structural strength. Short-term momentum is highlighted by the price holding firmly above the rising 20-DMA ($91.20).
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish trajectory, with the histogram expanding above the signal line since July 8, aligning with the price surge. KDJ registers overbought conditions (K: 82, D: 78, J: 90), though such readings have persisted during prior strong rallies (e.g., April breakout). No bearish divergence is evident currently, but sustained overbought KDJ alongside decelerating momentum may signal near-term consolidation. MACD’s continued ascent suggests underlying strength, but sensitivity to pullback risks remains elevated.
Bollinger Bands
Price currently hugs the upper band ($97.80), reflecting bullish momentum. The bands expanded sharply during the July 3–9 breakout, indicating volatility-driven upside. Recent closes near the upper band increase short-term reversion probability toward the 20-period moving average (mid-band, ~$91.20). A contraction in band width following this expansion would signal reduced volatility and potential consolidation, warranting vigilance for directional shifts.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains are validated by rising volume, notably the July 9 surge (+3.36%) on 5.18M shares—well above the 30-day average. The July 10-11 follow-through occurred on moderately lower but still-elevated volume, suggesting sustained but less aggressive buying pressure. The foundational breakout on June 16 (+6.78% on 4.22M shares, 40% above average) established high-conviction accumulation. Declining volume on pullbacks (e.g., June 30) signals limited distribution.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI(14) currently reads 71, bordering the overbought threshold. Historically, TPR has maintained RSI >70 during powerful uptrends (e.g., April rally reaching RSI 80), reducing the reliability of overbought warnings as reversal signals. However, current levels suggest limited near-term upside without consolidation. Bearish divergence would only materialize if price makes new highs while RSI trends lower.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the primary uptrend from the April 2025 low ($46.31) to the July 11 high ($98.65) reveals critical retracement zones. The 23.6% level ($91.15) aligns with recent support (July 8 low), while the 38.2% ($84.90) converges with the 50-DMA and June swing lows. The 61.8% level ($74.85) marks major support near the 100-DMA. Upside extensions identify $102 (261.8%) and $106 (323.6%) as potential resistance targets if the $100 barrier is breached.
Confluence & Caveats
Multiple indicators align at the $95.50-$96.00 zone (candlestick support, 20-DMA, Fibonacci 23.6%), making it a high-probability bounce area for dip-buyers. Conversely, the $100 level represents psychological and technical resistance. Divergence risks appear muted presently, though overbought oscillators (RSI, KDJ) near key resistance warrant caution. Sustained closes above $100 on volume would confirm bullish continuation targeting Fibonacci extensions, while failure to hold $95.50 may trigger profit-taking toward $91. A short-term consolidation phase appears probable before further directional conviction emerges.