Tapestry Plunges 4.64% As Death Cross Triggers Bearish Breakdown Below Key Support

Candlestick Theory
Tapestry's recent price action reveals concerning bearish signals. The last two sessions (October 9–10, 2025) formed consecutive long red candles with high volume, confirming strong selling pressure. A key support breach occurred when the price closed below $112.50 (October’s swing low), turning this level into immediate resistance. The long upper wick on October 9 ($116.22 high rejected) signaled exhaustion after an attempted recovery, leading to the 4.64% drop. A decisive break below $107.80—the August reaction low—would expose the next support near $104.50. Critical resistance now clusters around $112.50–$113.50, where the 50-day moving average converges with prior consolidation highs.
Moving Average Theory
Tapestry's moving averages depict deteriorating momentum. The 50-day MA (~$110.50) crossed below the 100-day MA (~$112.00) in late September, triggering a "death cross" that accelerated selling pressure. The current price ($108.22) trades below all key EMAs (50/100/200-day), confirming a bearish trend structure. The 200-day MA (~$105.00) offers the nearest long-term support. Consecutive closes below the 200-day MA have historically preceded extended downtrends for Tapestry, heightening downside risk without swift recovery above $112.50.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows bearish acceleration, with the histogram deepening below the zero line since October 8, signaling strengthening downward momentum. The KDJ oscillator entered oversold territory (K=18, D=22) but lacks a bullish reversal signal, as both %K and %J remain in a steep decline. A bearish divergence occurred in early October when price neared $117 while KDJ failed to surpass prior highs, foreshadowing the current correction. Until KDJ registers a decisive crossover above 20 and MACD histograms stabilize, oversold conditions may persist without meaningful reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands highlight rising volatility and bearish expansion. The October 10 close ($108.22) pierced the lower band (20-day SMA at $112.30 ± 2σ), indicating oversold extremes. Band width expanded by 15% during the two-day selloff, confirming panic-driven distribution. Historically, such violations preceded short-term bounces for Tapestry, but recovery requires reconquering the lower band (now ~$110.00). Failure to rebound above this level within three sessions may extend the decline toward the $104–$105 support zone.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate bearish conviction. The October 10 selloff occurred on 2.23 million shares—24% above the 30-day average—confirming institutional distribution. Down days have consistently registered higher volume than up days since mid-September, underscoring supply dominance. The volume spike on August 26 (15.8M shares) established a major support base at $100.70, now a critical psychological level. A close below $107.80 on similar high volume would confirm breakdown continuation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI plummeted to 31, nearing oversold territory after hovering near 55 mid-month. This divergence—price testing August highs while RSI trended lower—warned of weakening momentum before the correction. While oversold RSI readings sometimes precede rebounds, Tapestry’s RSI previously sustained levels below 30 for multiple sessions during the July-August decline. Traders should await RSI stabilization above 40 and a bullish divergence for reversal confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the primary uptrend from the June low ($78.91) to the August peak ($113.53), key retracement levels emerge. The current price ($108.22) hovers near the 38.2% retracement ($107.50). Confluence exists here with the August 26 swing low ($100.70), creating a pivotal support band at $107.50–$100.70. The 50% retracement ($96.22) aligns with the July consolidation zone. Recovery above $112.50 (23.6% retracement) is essential to invalidate bearish structure.
Confluence and Divergence
Critical confluence exists at $107.50–$108.00, merging Fibonacci 38.2% support, Bollinger lower band, and the August swing low. A break below this zone would align all indicators (MAs, MACD, volume) for extended downside toward $100–$105. Notable divergence occurred in early October when price neared $117 while RSI and KDJ registered lower highs, providing an early reversal signal. Currently, no bullish divergence is evident, requiring patience for stabilization signals before counter-trend positioning.