Tapestry Outlook - Weak Technicals and Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Tapestry (TPR) is showing weak technical indicators and a mixed analyst landscape, with a recent price increase of 4.28% despite bearish signals. Investors are advised to exercise caution.

News Highlights

• Hyundai and Huawei Luxury Sedan Launch: The May 30 launch of the Huawei-JAC collaboration, the Maextro S800, signals a growing trend in luxury automotive offerings. While not directly related to Tapestry, it reflects broader market interest in the luxury sector, which could affect Tapestry’s fashion brands.
• Luxury Housing Developments: Aparna Constructions announced a Rs 2,200 crore investment in a new luxury housing project in Hyderabad, and Toll Brothers announced the Canterbury Meadows development. These developments highlight a sustained appetite for luxury real estate, potentially mirroring consumer behavior in the fashion and accessories market.
• New Luxury Hotel Brand: Hyatt launched its new brand, Unscripted by Hyatt, which targets travelers seeking authenticity and local experiences. While not a direct competitor to Tapestry, it reflects a broader luxury lifestyle trend that Tapestry’s brands may aim to tap into.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Consensus:

• Average Rating (Simple Mean): 3.70
• Weighted Rating (Performance-Weighted): 4.67
• Consistency: Analysts show divergence, with 7 "Buy" ratings and 3 "Neutral" ratings in the last 20 days.
• Price Alignment: The stock has risen by 4.28% recently, which aligns with the optimistic market expectations, but clashes with the bearish technical indicators.

Key Fundamental Metrics:

• EV/EBIT: 136.07 (internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY growth rate %): -93.18% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Cash-UP: 1.36 (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• ROE: 23.22% (internal diagnostic score: 0.00)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities / Total Liabilities (%): 10.57% (internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Asset-MV: -0.89 (internal diagnostic score: 4.00)

These metrics suggest a mixed fundamental outlook, with strong EV/EBIT and cash flow ratios but weak operating growth and return on equity.

Money-Flow Trends

Big Money vs. Retail Flows:

• Overall Inflow Ratio: 49.07% (internal diagnostic score: 7.93)
• Block Inflow Ratio: 48.77% (trend: negative)
• Large Inflow Ratio: 49.88% (trend: negative)
• Small Inflow Ratio: 50.53% (trend: positive)

While small investors are showing a positive bias, larger money flows are negative, suggesting caution among institutional investors. The overall fund-flow score is good, but the divergence in trends should be watched closely.

Key Technical Signals

• Ex-Dividend Date: Internal diagnostic score: 1.10 — indicates a biased bearish signal.
• Dividend Record Date: Internal diagnostic score: 1.10 — also biased bearish.
• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 6.88 — neutral rise in strength.
• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 3.08 — neutral bias with mixed performance.

Recent Chart Patterns:

• 2025-09-03: WR Overbought
• 2025-09-05: Ex-Dividend Date, Dividend Record Date
• 2025-09-09: WR Overbought, Hanging Man (bearish candlestick pattern)

The hanging man pattern is particularly concerning as it often signals a potential reversal in an uptrend.

Technical Summary:

Technical indicators show that the market is in a volatile state, and the direction is not clear enough. Bearish signals are obviously dominant (3 bearish vs 0 bullish).

Conclusion

With a technical score of 3.04 and internal diagnostic scores leaning heavily bearish, Tapestry (TPR) is currently showing a weak trend and should be approached with caution. While some analysts remain optimistic, the technical and cash-flow signals are mixed. Investors should consider waiting for a clearer trend or improved technical signals before committing capital.