El auge del comercio impulsado por la IA en Taiwán: ¿Un cambio estructural o un pico cíclico?

Taiwan's 2025 trade performance was not a minor uptick but a structural reordering, powered by a single, dominant force. The island's trade surplus hit a record $157.14 billion, surging 95.0 percent from a year earlier. This staggering figure is the direct outcome of an export boom that has redefined the economy's composition.

The primary driver is the global build-out of AI infrastructure. Exports of information and communication technology (ICT) and video/audio products, the sector most directly tied to AI chips and data centers, exploded 89.5 percent from 2024 to a new high of US$251.15 billion. This category alone accounted for about 74 percent of Taiwan's total exports last year, a concentration that underscores the shift. The growth trajectory is explosive: exports in this sector more than doubled from 2023 to 2025, fueled by surging demand for the advanced components Taiwan manufactures.

This AI-driven demand is not spread evenly. It is concentrated in a few key markets, with the United States being the epicenter. Exports to the US soared 125.9 percent from a year earlier to a record $22.24 billion in December alone, and the full-year figure shows a similar trajectory. The Ministry of Finance noted that the US became Taiwan's biggest export market for the first time in 26 years, capturing 30.9 percent of total exports. This dramatic pivot away from China and toward the US market is a direct consequence of the strategic realignment of global supply chains around advanced technology.

The bottom line is clear. Taiwan's record surplus is not a cyclical peak in general manufacturing. It is the financial manifestation of the island's central role in the AI supply chain. The numbers-$251.15 billion in ICT exports, a 95% surplus growth, and a 125.9% surge to the US-are the quantitative proof of a structural shift. The engine is running hot, and its fuel is the insatiable demand for chips and systems that power artificial intelligence.

Financial and Structural Impact

The record trade surplus is a powerful current account surplus, with profound implications for Taiwan's currency and economy. The sheer scale of the inflow-a surplus of $157.14 billion in 2025-creates persistent upward pressure on the New Taiwan Dollar. This dynamic has already played out in monthly data, where the surplus widened to $19.43 billion in December, far exceeding expectations. Such a massive, sustained inflow of foreign currency raises the clear possibility of central bank intervention to manage the currency's appreciation, which could dampen export competitiveness and complicate monetary policy.

A key feature of this surplus is the divergence between export and import growth. While both hit record levels, exports rose 34.9 percent year-over-year to $640.75 billion, outpacing imports, which grew 22.6 percent to $483.61 billion. This gap indicates that external demand is surging far more rapidly than domestic consumption or investment. In other words, the engine of growth is overwhelmingly external, powered by AI-driven demand. This suggests that domestic demand may be cooling relative to the external strength, a structural imbalance that could become a vulnerability if global tech spending softens.

The composition of the surplus further defines its nature. It is heavily concentrated in high-value, capital-intensive sectors like ICT and electronics components, which accounted for about 74 percent of total exports. This concentration boosts corporate profitability for the leading firms, but it also increases the economy's exposure to the inherent volatility of technology cycles. The surplus is not a broad-based strength but a function of a few booming industries, making it inherently less stable than a diversified export base.

The sustainability of this surplus, therefore, hinges on the longevity of the AI infrastructure build-out. The current account strength and currency pressure are real and immediate consequences. The structural shift is undeniable. Yet the very concentration that fuels the boom also creates a single point of failure. If demand for AI chips and data center equipment moderates, the export-led growth engine could stall quickly, revealing the underlying fragility of a surplus built on a narrow technological peak.

Geopolitical and Cyclical Risks

The structural shift powering Taiwan's trade boom is now facing a complex set of external pressures. The most immediate threat is geopolitical uncertainty, which has intensified in the past year. While the United States formally acknowledges Taiwan's strategic importance in technology supply chains, its policy signals have been contradictory. In February, the White House declined to explicitly state whether it would prevent China from taking Taiwan by force, a remark that analysts interpreted as reinforcing strategic ambiguity and sparking concern. This non-committal stance contrasted with reassurances from senior officials, creating a climate of uncertainty that can chill long-term investment and planning. As one analysis noted, this turbulence in US-Taiwan relations, marked by a "balancing act between deterrence and diplomatic transactionalism," introduces a persistent risk to the stability of the very supply chains that are driving exports.

At the same time, the very realignment of global supply chains is beginning to show its limits. While Taiwan has successfully pivoted to the US as its largest export market, its import partners are diversifying. Imports from the ASEAN bloc grew 35.6 percent last year, and US imports rose 17.7 percent. This growth in imports from key partners suggests that supply chain diversification is an ongoing process, not a one-way street. As other Asian economies ramp up their own manufacturing capacity, particularly in electronics, Taiwan's role as a sole or primary supplier for certain components may erode. This reduces its import dependency but also introduces new competition for its export markets.

More critically, the pace of the export boom itself is showing signs of fatigue. December's export growth decelerated to 43.4% year-on-year, down from November's 56.0% YoY growth. This slowdown, coupled with the exceptionally high base from January 2025, points to a potential cyclical peak in the near term. The explosive growth in the ICT and video/audio sector, which drove the record surplus, is likely facing inventory adjustments and the natural maturation of the current AI infrastructure build-out cycle. The Ministry of Finance's data also notes that several non-high-tech industries performed poorly due to a global supply glut, a reminder that the export boom is not universal and could be vulnerable to broader commodity price swings.

The bottom line is that the AI-driven surplus faces a dual challenge. Geopolitical friction introduces a persistent strategic risk, while the ongoing diversification of supply chains and the natural deceleration of a hyper-growth cycle threaten the economic momentum. The structural shift is real, but its sustainability now hinges on navigating this turbulent environment. The record surplus provides a buffer, but it does not insulate the economy from the volatility of global politics or the cyclical nature of technology investment.

Catalysts and Scenarios

The record surplus of 2025 sets a high bar, but the coming year will reveal whether this is a new normal or a cyclical peak. Three key catalysts will determine Taiwan's economic trajectory.

First, the sustainability of AI-driven demand must be tested. The explosive growth in the ICT and video/audio sector, which fueled the surplus, is now facing a high base. December's export growth decelerated to 43.4% year-on-year, down from November's 56.0%. For the surplus to hold, export growth will need to re-accelerate from this elevated starting point. This hinges on sustained capital expenditure cycles in the US and other key markets, as well as the successful launch of new AI products and data center projects in 2026. If these catalysts materialize, they could provide a fresh growth vector. If not, the current slowdown may be the start of a more pronounced mean reversion.

Second, geopolitical stability is a critical variable. While the US has formally acknowledged Taiwan's role in technology supply chains, policy signals have been contradictory. The White House's non-committal stance in February and the broader "balancing act between deterrence and diplomatic transactionalism" create uncertainty that can disrupt long-term investment and planning. Any formal shift in US policy toward Taiwan, whether in the form of new security commitments or changes to export controls, would directly impact both demand for Taiwanese components and the flow of supply chain investments. The current turbulence is a known risk, but its resolution-or escalation-will be decisive.

Finally, the market's own forecast points to a significant correction. According to economic models, the Taiwan Balance of Trade is projected to trend around $9 billion by 2027. This implies a mean reversion of over 40% from the 2025 peak of $157 billion. While this is a long-term projection, it frames the current surplus as an outlier. The path from here to that 2027 level will be defined by the interplay of the two forces above: the health of the AI cycle and the stability of the geopolitical environment. If both hold, the surplus could moderate gradually. If either falters, the reversion could be sharper and more abrupt.

The bottom line is that Taiwan's economic future is not predetermined. The catalysts are clear: watch for AI capex and new product cycles to re-accelerate exports, monitor US policy for shifts in the geopolitical risk premium, and prepare for the structural mean reversion implied by long-term forecasts. The coming year will separate the signal of a lasting structural shift from the noise of a cyclical peak.