T1 Energy cae 18% entre movimientos de financiamiento de $260 millones: lo que los comerciantes necesitan saber

Summary
• T1 Energy (TE) slumps 18.37% intraday to $4.90, its lowest since December 2024
• Company announces $260M convertible notes and equity offering to fund FEOC compliance
• RSI surges to 81.35, signaling potential overbought correction

The stock’s sharp decline follows T1 Energy’s announcement of a $260 million capital raise, triggering immediate investor skepticism. With the intraday range spanning $4.90 to $5.37, the move underscores market jitters over dilution risks and regulatory hurdles. Traders are now parsing technicals and options data to gauge the next catalyst.

Massive Equity Raise Sparks Investor Flight
T1 Energy’s 18.37% intraday drop stems directly from its $260 million convertible notes and common stock offering. The company aims to use proceeds for FEOC compliance, infrastructure development, and working capital. However, the aggressive capital raise—combined with a 30-day over-allotment option—has triggered fears of dilution and eroded investor confidence. The after-hours plunge of 14% following the announcement sealed the bearish sentiment, as traders priced in near-term volatility and execution risks.

Options Volatility and Technicals Signal High-Risk Setup
• RSI: 81.35 (overbought correction likely)
• MACD: 0.687 (bullish momentum fading)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 4.1615 (middle band) vs. upper 6.6449
• 30D MA: 4.0593 (below current price)

Technical indicators suggest a short-term overbought condition, with RSI near 81 and price near the lower Bollinger Band. The 30D MA at 4.0593 could act as a near-term support. However, the options chain reveals extreme volatility: the TE20251219P5 put (strike $5, expiring 12/19) and TE20260116C5 call (strike $5, expiring 1/16) stand out for their high implied volatility (165.27% and 122.15%) and liquidity.

• TE20251219P5 (Put): Strike $5, Expiry 12/19, IV 165.27%, Leverage 10.20%, Delta -0.3879, Theta -0.0175, Gamma 0.2839, Turnover $65,215
- High IV and moderate delta suggest strong bearish potential. A 5% downside to $4.77 would yield a $0.23 payoff.
• TE20260116C5 (Call): Strike $5, Expiry 1/16, IV 122.15%, Leverage 5.78%, Delta 0.6202, Theta -0.0130, Gamma 0.1882, Turnover $223,871
- High liquidity and gamma make it ideal for directional bets. A rebound above $5.37 could trigger rapid premium gains.

Aggressive bears should target TE20251219P5 for a short-term play, while bulls may consider TE20260116C5 into a bounce above $5.37.

Backtest T1 Energy Stock Performance
The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (TE) has demonstrated robust performance following a -18% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present. The backtest reveals a 3-day win rate of 57.89%, a 10-day win rate of 71.58%, and a 30-day win rate of 88.42%. Over these respective time frames, the ETF delivered an average return of 4.01%, 13.28%, and 35.65%, with a maximum return of 65.01% achieved on day 59 after the plunge.

Urgent Action Required as T1 Energy Tests Critical Support
The 18% drop has brought T1 Energy near its 30D support range of $3.60–$3.68, a critical level to watch. While the solar sector leader First Solar (FSLR) also fell 3.02%, the move in TE is more pronounced due to its capital-raising announcement. Traders should monitor the $3.60 support and the 52W low of $0.92 for deeper breakdown risks. Immediate action: Watch for a breakdown below $3.60 or regulatory clarity on FEOC compliance.