Synopsys avanza 3,76 % en la jornada de trading: ¿qué le da ese ímpetu?

Summary
• Synopsys (SNPS) surges 3.76% to $481.2, hitting an intraday high of $482.33
• Turnover jumps to 1.36M shares, with 52W high at $651.73 and 52W low at $365.74
• Sector news highlights AI-driven demand, Micron’s 10% pop, and China’s chip ambitions

Today’s intraday surge in Synopsys reflects a confluence of sector-wide AI momentum and speculative positioning. With AI memory demand surging and Chinese tech firms pushing alternatives to U.S. chips, the semiconductor sector is in a high-stakes race. Synopsys’ rally, though trailing its 52W high, signals renewed investor confidence amid a backdrop of geopolitical and technological shifts.

AI-Driven Demand and Sector Momentum Ignite Synopsys' Rally
Synopsys’ 3.76% intraday gain aligns with broader semiconductor sector trends, particularly AI memory demand and China’s push for domestic chip alternatives. Micron’s 10% surge and Bernstein’s commentary on 'sold-out' AI memory markets underscore the sector’s urgency. While Synopsys lacks direct news, its rally mirrors the sector’s speculative fervor, driven by expectations of sustained AI infrastructure spending and geopolitical tailwinds. The options chain’s heavy call volume (e.g., SNPS20251226C480 with 48.15% price change ratio) further validates bullish positioning.

Semiconductor Sector Gains Steam as AI and Memory Demand Surge
The semiconductor sector is rallying on AI-driven demand, with Micron’s 10% surge and Intel’s Arizona fab developments amplifying optimism. Synopsys, while up 3.76%, lags behind peers like Micron but benefits from the sector’s broader narrative. Intel (INTC), the sector leader, fell 0.74% intraday, highlighting mixed performance. However, the sector’s collective focus on AI and memory—bolstered by China’s push for self-sufficiency—creates a tailwind for Synopsys’ long-term positioning.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls for a Bullish Bet
• 200-day average: 488.55 (above) • RSI: 62.47 (neutral) • MACD: 9.71 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: 392.75–500.99

Technical indicators suggest Synopsys is in a short-term bullish trend, with the 200-day MA acting as a key support. The RSI’s neutrality and MACD’s positive divergence hint at potential continuation. For options, two contracts stand out:

• SNPS20251226C480 (Call, $480 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 23.80% (moderate) • Leverage: 76.91% • Delta: 0.557 • Theta: -2.71 • Gamma: 0.0294 • Turnover: $48.15M
- High leverage and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (targeting $505.26). Theta decay (-2.71) and gamma (0.0294) suggest sensitivity to price swings.
• SNPS20251226C485 (Call, $485 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 21.65% (moderate) • Leverage: 140.37% • Delta: 0.400 • Theta: -2.04 • Gamma: 0.0317 • Turnover: $17.45K
- Aggressive bulls should target this for a 5% move (projected $505.26), with leverage amplifying gains. Theta (-2.04) and gamma (0.0317) balance time decay and price sensitivity.

Payoff Estimation: A 5% upside to $505.26 yields $25.26 profit for SNPS20251226C480 and $20.26 for SNPS20251226C485. Aggressive bulls may consider SNPS20251226C485 into a break above $485.

Backtest Synopsys Stock Performance
The backtest of SNPS's performance after a 4% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. Here's a detailed analysis:1. Frequency and Win Rates: The event occurred 500 times over the period, with a 3-day win rate of 53.00%, a 10-day win rate of 52.80%, and a 30-day win rate of 62.40%. This suggests that following a 4% intraday increase in SNPS, the stock tends to experience a positive reaction in the short to medium term, with higher win rates across various time frames.2. Returns: The average 3-day return following the event was 0.12%, the 10-day return was 0.56%, and the 30-day return was 1.98%. While the returns are modest, they are positive, indicating that SNPS tends to move higher in the days following a 4% intraday increase.3. Maximum Return: The maximum return observed was 4.03% on day 59, which is the latest date in the backtest period. This highlights that SNPS can experience significant gains in the days following a 4% intraday surge, with the potential for optimal returns over 30 days.In conclusion, the backtest indicates that SNPS performs well after a 4% intraday increase, with a high probability of positive returns in the short to medium term. Investors may consider these findings when assessing the stock's potential for gains following such events.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside: Position for Next Move
Synopsys’ rally is underpinned by sector-wide AI demand and speculative positioning, with technicals favoring continuation. The 200-day MA at $488.55 and Bollinger Bands’ upper bound at $500.99 are critical levels to watch. While the sector leader Intel (INTC) fell 0.74%, the broader semiconductor narrative remains intact. Investors should prioritize high-leverage calls like SNPS20251226C485 for a 5% upside scenario and monitor the 200-day MA for support. Action: Buy SNPS20251226C485 if $485 breaks, with a stop below $480.