SynFutures/Turkish Lira Market Overview

Summary
• SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) experienced a sharp intraday reversal after hitting 0.516, ending lower at 0.4747.
• Volatility spiked midday, with a 3.03% intraday high-to-low range, but closing momentum weakened on low volume.
• RSI hit overbought during the rally, followed by bearish divergence in the final 6 hours.

Open, High, Low, Close, and Turnover

SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) opened at 0.4845 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of 0.516, and closed at 0.4747 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the period was 35,347,360.0, and total turnover (notional) amounted to approximately $17.05 million. The pair displayed a volatile but bearish bias over the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

The price structure showed a strong bullish breakout above 0.5000 from 17:45 to 18:30 ET, marked by a sharp move from 0.4997 to 0.5096. However, this was quickly reversed with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at 19:00 ET, which marked the beginning of a multi-hour decline. A key support level appears at the 0.4938–0.4944 range, which held during the late evening and early morning. A notable bearish doji formed at 02:45 ET, signaling indecision in a key consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed bearishly just after the 19:00 ET candle, confirming the reversal. The 200-period SMA on the daily chart sits at 0.4850, suggesting a bearish bias for the larger trend. The 50-period SMA is now bearishly aligned with the price action, reinforcing the downward momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed bearishly at 18:45 ET, confirming the reversal phase. The histogram showed a rapid divergence between price and momentum after 21:00 ET. RSI reached an overbought level of 75 during the short-lived rally, then fell into a strong bearish territory, hitting 35 by 05:30 ET. This indicates exhausted bullish momentum and potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 17:45 and 19:00 ET as the price broke above the upper Bollinger Band. This was followed by a rapid contraction as the price fell back inside the bands. The current price action sits near the lower band at 0.4747, suggesting potential for a rebound or continuation of the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 17:45–19:00 ET rally, with a candle at 18:45 ET recording the highest volume (3.725 million). However, volume during the subsequent bearish phase was mixed, with key down candles (e.g., 21:45 ET) showing moderate confirmation. Turnover dropped significantly after 02:00 ET, coinciding with a consolidation phase and lower trading intensity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the intraday swing from 0.4938 to 0.516, the 0.618 level sits at 0.5016, which coincided with the 23:30 ET candle. The price has now fallen below the 0.5000 level, suggesting a test of the 0.4844–0.4805 range next. Daily retracement levels indicate the 0.4733–0.4747 area could offer support or bounce potential in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could utilize the bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:00 ET and the RSI overbought reading of 75 to open a short position at the open of the next candle. A 15-minute holding period and exit at the next open would align with the data provided. Additional risk controls—such as a 1.5% stop-loss or a 2.0% take-profit—could be added to manage drawdowns during volatile periods. The 15-minute OHLCV data supports this setup, though extended holding periods would require more granular data or alternative execution rules.