Synapse/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• Price surged 7.1% from 0.0748 to 0.0796 in early session before retracing to 0.073.
• Volatility expanded significantly with Bollinger bands widening after 19:00 ET.
• RSI reached overbought conditions near 80 before moderating, suggesting potential correction.

The Synapse/USDC (SYNUSDC) pair opened at 0.0748 on 2025-11-07 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.0796 before closing at 0.073 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 11,888,874.1, with a total notional turnover of $895,492. Price action revealed a bullish breakout from a 15-minute consolidation pattern in the early session followed by a bearish reversal in late evening hours.

Key support and resistance levels were identified around 0.0775–0.0780 (resistance) and 0.0730–0.0735 (support). A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 19:30 ET (0.0791–0.0796), followed by a bearish harami pattern at 20:30 ET (0.0791–0.0782). These formations suggest short-term indecision and potential for a pullback if support at 0.073 holds.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price early in the session, signaling a bullish bias. However, as price declined toward the close, the 50-period MA began to diverge from the 20-period MA, signaling possible bearish momentum. Bollinger bands expanded significantly during the session, particularly between 19:00–21:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility.

RSI hit 80 in mid-session before dropping below 60, indicating a potential overbought condition followed by a correction. MACD crossed into positive territory at 18:00 ET but lost momentum after 21:00 ET, hinting at bearish divergence. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.0748–0.0796 swing identified key levels at 0.0769 (38.2%), 0.0782 (50%), and 0.0775 (61.8%), which were tested multiple times during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy applied to the 15-minute close price of Synapse/USDC involved entering long positions based on the appearance of a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. The signal was held for exactly one trading day with no additional stop-loss or take-profit constraints. Initial results from the backtest suggest that the strategy may capture short-term momentum shifts effectively in a volatile pair like SYNUSDC, especially during breakout phases. However, during the late session pullback, signals would have been closed at a loss or a narrow gain, reflecting the high frequency of false breakouts in fast-moving crypto markets. The performance appears to be highly dependent on the timing of the engulfing pattern relative to the broader market trend.