Swiss KOF indicator actual 104.2 (forecast 103, previous 102.5, revised 103.3)

Swiss KOF indicator actual 104.2 (forecast 103, previous 102.5, revised 103.3)

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer Surpasses Expectations in February 2026

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, a key leading indicator of the country's economic health, rose to 104.2 in February 2026, exceeding the consensus forecast of 103.0 and marking a significant improvement from the revised 103.3 in January according to the KOF report. This reading reflects a continued, albeit uneven, recovery in key sectors, though challenges persist in areas like construction and hospitality.

The barometer's increase was driven by stronger-than-expected performance in manufacturing and financial services, which offset weaker momentum in consumption and construction. Within the producing industries (manufacturing and construction), sub-indicators for employment prospects and export expectations showed improvement, while assessments of production constraints and profit margins remained under pressure as detailed in the press release. Manufacturing signals were mixed: indicators for machinery, metal, and paper/printing sectors improved, but the electrical and wood/glass/stone segments weakened according to KOF data.

The KOF report highlights a nuanced economic landscape. While the general business outlook and competitive conditions brightened, foreign demand and private consumption remain subdued. Construction and hospitality sectors, which saw declines in January, continued to drag on growth, reflecting ongoing headwinds from high borrowing costs and reduced consumer spending as reported in the January 2026 release.

The Swiss franc (CHF) initially strengthened against major currencies following the release, as the data reinforced expectations of a resilient Swiss economy. However, analysts caution that the barometer's upward trend may not fully offset broader risks, including global trade tensions and domestic labor market constraints according to market analysis.

Looking ahead, the KOF Economic Barometer is projected to trend near its medium-term average of 100.64 in 2027, with gradual moderation expected as external pressures persist as forecasted by Trading Economics. For now, the February reading underscores Switzerland's ability to navigate a fragile global environment, though sectoral imbalances suggest a cautious outlook for policymakers.

Trading Economics, KOF Economic Barometer data: Trading Economics, KOF Economic Barometer data.
Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) press release, January 2026: Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) press release, January 2026.