SUSDT Market Overview

• Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) closed near the session low amid a broad 1.06% decline and elevated bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signal overbought conditions reversed into bearish territory, confirming downward bias.
• Volatility increased as price traded within a 15-minute Bollinger Band contraction followed by expansion.
• A key support level appears at $0.2540, with a potential short-term rebound scenario.
• Divergence between price and volume suggests caution for near-term continuation or reversal.

Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) opened at $0.2587 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.2619, and closed at $0.2547 at 12:00 ET-1. The pair traded between $0.253 and $0.2619 over the 24-hour period, with a total volume of 50,859,710.00 and a notional turnover of $12,871,274.30.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data revealed a bearish trend, with a significant low at $0.2530 and a high at $0.2619. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared around $0.2570, while a doji at $0.2540 indicated indecision. A strong support level was identified at $0.2530, and a resistance zone formed around $0.2560, with bearish continuation expected if the price fails to retest the latter.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA remained bearish, with the 20-EMA crossing below the 50-EMA in the early hours. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA crossed below the 200-EMA, signaling a bearish trend. The 100-EMA and 200-EMA confirmed this divergence, suggesting a potential continuation in the downward direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative for most of the 24-hour period, indicating strong bearish momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 in the later hours, signaling a potential short-term rebound. However, a bearish divergence between RSI and price suggests caution for further downward movement, as momentum appears to be outpacing price action.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction from 17:00 ET to 19:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke below the lower band. This expansion suggests heightened volatility and a continuation of the bearish bias. The price currently sits near the lower band, reinforcing the notion of oversold conditions and potential short-term support.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked significantly during the 04:15 ET-04:30 ET period, with a turnover of $1,271,050.30. However, volume decreased during the rebound attempt around $0.2545, suggesting a lack of conviction. Price and turnover diverged in the latter half of the session, indicating possible exhaustion of bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.2530 to $0.2619, the 38.2% level at $0.2576 and 61.8% level at $0.2559 acted as key resistance and support, respectively. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement at $0.2574 failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias. A breakdown below $0.2530 could extend the move to $0.2520, aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level with confirmation from RSI and MACD. Stop-loss could be placed at the 38.2% retracement level, with a target near the daily 50% retracement or lower. The 15-minute Bollinger Band break below the lower band could serve as an entry signal, with volume acting as a filter to confirm the move. This approach aligns with the observed bearish divergence and could be tested for consistency across multiple cycles.