La oleada de suministro de stablecoins: un catalizador para el rebote del mercado criptográfico

The crypto market's 2023–2025 rebound has been inextricably tied to the explosive growth of stablecoin supply, which has transformed liquidity dynamics and directly influenced BTC/ETH price action. By 2025, stablecoins had surpassed $310 billion in market cap, representing 1% of the U.S. dollar supply. This surge, driven by cross-border payments, institutional adoption, and DeFi integration, has created a feedback loop where stablecoin liquidity amplifies trading efficiency, deepens markets, and reshapes risk profiles for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Stablecoin Supply as a Liquidity Engine

Stablecoins have become the lifeblood of crypto markets, with Ethereum's stablecoin supply alone reaching $277.8 billion in Q3 2025 according to MEXC data. This growth has directly fueled DeFi's Total Value Locked (TVL), with stablecoins accounting for 40% of the $123.6 billion TVL in the same period according to MEXC analysis. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle: stablecoin inflows into liquidity pools reduce slippage, attract arbitrage activity, and enable tighter spreads on DEXs. For instance, MEXC reported daily BTC/USDT trading volumes exceeding $500 million in Q4 2024, underscoring how stablecoins underpin high-frequency trading and market depth.

The velocity of stablecoin transfers further highlights their role as a liquidity backbone. In Q3 2025, stablecoin transfers hit $15.6 trillion, driven by bot activity and retail-sized transfers. This liquidity surge has acted as a leading indicator for BTC/ETH price movements. For example, when U.S. fiscal uncertainty intensified in November 2025-triggering a government shutdown-Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plummeted as liquidity froze according to market analysis. Conversely, when the U.S. debt ceiling was raised earlier in 2025, Bitcoin surged from $80,000 to $124,000, demonstrating its sensitivity to liquidity shifts.

Regulatory Clarity and Institutional Adoption

The U.S. GENIUS Stablecoin Act of 2025, which mandated FDIC-insured reserves, catalyzed institutional adoption. This regulatory clarity transformed stablecoins into cash equivalents, with major financial institutions integrating them into operations. By Q3 2025, net stablecoin inflows surged 300% to $45.6 billion, driven by institutional demand. This influx deepened liquidity pools, enabling protocols like Aave and Tether to expand lending markets to $40.99 billion in outstanding loans according to research findings.

Institutional participation also reshaped market structure. Retail ownership of Bitcoin fell from 32% to 25% in Q3 2025 as institutions became dominant players according to market analysis. These entities brought disciplined capital and hedging strategies, reducing volatility and stabilizing prices. Ethereum's layer-2 scalability upgrades (e.g., Dencun hard fork) further enhanced liquidity by lowering gas fees and enabling faster transactions, reinforcing its role as the primary settlement layer for stablecoin-driven activity.

Correlation and Causation: Stablecoin Volume vs. BTC/ETH Prices

On-chain data reveals a statistically significant, moderate positive correlation between stablecoin trading volume and BTC/ETH price movements. In 2025, stablecoins accounted for 30% of all on-chain crypto transaction volume, with annualized volumes peaking at $4 trillion according to industry analysis. This liquidity concentration has amplified price rebounds during periods of macroeconomic optimism. For example, Ethereum's price surged 65% in Q3 2025, outpacing Bitcoin's 6% gain, as regulatory clarity and stablecoin integration drove demand.

However, the relationship is not linear. During the October 2025 liquidity crisis, $19 billion in perpetual futures positions were liquidated in a single day according to market reports, exposing the fragility of crypto's liquidity structure. Unlike traditional markets, crypto lacks robust institutional liquidity providers or a lender of last resort, making it prone to cascading liquidations during downturns. This fragility was exacerbated by over-leveraged positions and one-sided trading flows, which amplified volatility.

The Fragile Balance of Liquidity and Risk

While stablecoin-driven liquidity has supported crypto's rebound, structural risks persist. The average liquidity per stablecoin token has dropped 99% since 2021 due to token proliferation according to market research, diluting capital availability. Yield-bearing stablecoins like USDe have also seen TVL drops of over 50% amid yield compression according to industry data, highlighting vulnerabilities in leveraged strategies.

Moreover, liquidity migration across chains remains a double-edged sword. During expansionary periods, capital flows to ecosystems offering superior execution and yield incentives. During stress, liquidity consolidates into deeper venues, signaling a flight to safety according to on-chain analysis. This dynamic was evident in Q3 2025, when Ethereum's TVL growth (driven by stablecoin adoption) outpaced Bitcoin's, but both assets faced headwinds during the October crisis according to market reports.

Conclusion: A Catalyst with Caveats

The surge in stablecoin supply has undeniably acted as a catalyst for the crypto market's 2023–2025 rebound, with on-chain liquidity metrics directly influencing BTC/ETH price action. Regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and DeFi integration have deepened markets and improved trading efficiency. Yet, the October 2025 liquidity crisis underscores the fragility of this system. For investors, the key takeaway is that stablecoin-driven liquidity is a powerful force-but one that must be navigated with caution in a market still prone to pro-cyclical volatility.