Decisión del Tribunal Supremo sobre las tarifas: Un cambio estructural en la política fiscal y comercial de los Estados Unidos

The core question now rests with the Supreme Court. Just days before a ruling expected on Friday, January 9, the justices are poised to decide the constitutionality of President Trump's sweeping tariff regime. This is not a routine trade dispute. The administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977-a law traditionally used for sanctions and asset freezes-to impose levies of 10% to 50% on most imports. Lower courts have already ruled these tariffs illegal, but they remain in place pending the high court's final word. The justices themselves expressed deep skepticism during oral arguments in November, questioning whether the president can unilaterally impose such taxes without explicit congressional authorization.

The financial implications of a ruling against the tariffs are immediate and profound. The president has explicitly tied the new $1.5 trillion military budget target to tariff revenue, stating he could only reach that figure because of the "tremendous Income that they bring." A court strike-down would therefore jeopardize up to one-third of that proposed defense spending, forcing a major fiscal recalibration. More concretely, the government faces the administrative and political challenge of a potential refund. Tariff collections under the IEEPA have approached $150 billion since February. If the court invalidates the tariffs, importers-more than 1,000 of whom have already filed lawsuits-could be entitled to a refund of billions. Trade lawyers and executives, however, anticipate a difficult path to recovery, with one noting it "would be a dog's breakfast" and that "it's not in the government's DNA to give back money."

The setup is a classic clash of powers with direct market consequences. The ruling will not only settle a legal question but also determine the fiscal foundation for a major policy initiative and trigger a complex, costly administrative process. The court's decision on Friday will therefore be a structural shift, reshaping both trade policy and the federal budget outlook.

Market and Economic Impact Scenarios

The Supreme Court's decision will be a direct catalyst for financial markets, but the path of volatility and structural change is not straightforward. The immediate reaction will likely be a jolt, with bond traders bracing for a fiscal shock. A strike-down could push Treasury yields higher as investors worry about the deficit and the government's ability to fund its spending without the tariff revenue stream. This dynamic echoes April, when stocks fell nearly 5% and yields initially tumbled on uncertainty. The market's subsequent 39% rally in the S&P 500 shows it has already priced in a lower tariff regime. A ruling against the tariffs would therefore validate that thesis, providing a potential tailwind for equity valuations.

Yet, the initial boost may be short-lived. The administration has multiple legal routes to reimpose levies, and market participants expect the president to act swiftly. As one strategist noted, "In the short term, this will be noise." The real economic impact hinges on the refund mechanism. If importers receive a windfall of $150 billion to $200 billion, it could provide a significant liquidity injection, particularly benefiting sectors like retail and consumer goods that absorbed high costs. This could fuel a rally in small-cap stocks, seen as a potential beneficiary of both tariff relief and Fed liquidity. However, the administrative complexity of a refund is a major overhang, with one expert calling it "a dog's breakfast."

The broader economic picture is one of mixed signals. Lower tariffs would ease consumer price pressure, supporting spending and the overall economy. The potential earnings boost for the S&P 500 is estimated at 2.4% before interest and taxes for 2026. But the uncertainty itself is a risk, particularly for financial-technology and crypto-linked stocks that thrive on stable, forward-looking conditions. The bottom line is that while a strike-down offers a clear near-term catalyst for equities and a path to lower inflation, the structural shift is limited. The market's forward view already assumes a reduced tariff burden, and the political and legal machinery to restore it remains intact.

Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch

The immediate catalyst is the Supreme Court's ruling, expected on Friday. Betting markets currently give the administration a 30% chance of upholding the tariffs. A strike-down would be a direct, positive catalyst for equities, validating the market's recent 39% rally and providing a potential earnings boost. The key uncertainty, however, is the long-term impact. The White House has multiple legal avenues to reimpose levies, meaning the ruling's structural effect could be limited. As one strategist noted, "The White House could use other laws to reimpose some new levies."

For investors, the primary watchpoints are twofold. First, monitor Treasury yields for signals of fiscal stress. A ruling against the tariffs could push yields higher as the market prices in a deficit shock from the loss of revenue and the potential $150 billion refund. Second, watch for preemptive legal actions. Companies are already positioning for the refund windfall, with some anticipating an inflow of $150 billion to $200 billion. The administrative path to recovery, however, is fraught with difficulty, with trade lawyers warning it "would be a dog's breakfast." The ease or complexity of this process will determine how quickly and fully the promised liquidity reaches the economy.

The bottom line is that the ruling is a binary event with a clear near-term market impact, but its duration is uncertain. The thesis hinges on the refund mechanism and the political will to execute it.