SuperRare/Tether USDt (RAREUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-09-11

• Price declined from 0.0576 to 0.0566 over 24 hours, with a 2% drawdown.
• Volatility expanded mid-day before stabilizing near key support at 0.0565.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening momentum after 0.0570 level.
• High volume confirmed the break below 0.0570 but failed to reverse the trend.
• Turnover spiked during the morning sell-off but lacked follow-through buying.

The SuperRare/Tether USDt (RAREUSDT) pair opened at 0.0575 at 12:00 ET – 1, with a 24-hour high of 0.0590 and a low of 0.0559. As of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, it closed at 0.0566. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 35,113,157.9 and notional turnover amounted to 1,989.8 USD.

Structure & Formations

Price action suggests a bearish bias over the past 24 hours, with a key support level emerging at 0.0565, tested and confirmed during the mid-day selloff. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.0573–0.0559, signaling a potential reversal from a prior consolidation range. A doji at 0.0567 during the overnight session indicated indecision and may act as a potential reversal setup if buyers re-enter above that level. The price has remained within a tight range between 0.0564–0.0575 since 09:00 ET, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both moved lower, crossing below the current price, reinforcing the near-term bearish trend. For the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average is at ~0.0572, with the 100-period at ~0.0575 and 200-period at ~0.0576. This suggests RARE is trading below key multi-day support levels and could face further pressure if the 0.0565 level fails.

MACD & RSI

MACD has remained negative for most of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring at 17:30 ET. RSI has fallen into oversold territory (~35) near the 0.0565 level but has failed to trigger a strong rebound, indicating a lack of buying interest. This divergence between RSI and price suggests caution: a potential bounce may be limited unless accompanied by higher volume.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have seen a modest contraction after the morning sell-off, narrowing the range between 0.0564–0.0568. Price has remained near the lower band for much of the session, suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. A break above the upper band (~0.0568) could trigger a short-term rebound but would need to be confirmed with increased volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning sell-off at 17:30 ET, coinciding with a key bearish move to 0.0565. However, volume has since remained relatively low, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers. Notional turnover has also declined, with the highest spike occurring at ~$189k during the 0.0570–0.0559 breakdown. A divergence between price and turnover raises questions about the strength of the current bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent 15-minute swing (0.0570–0.0559), key retracement levels are at 0.0567 (38.2%) and 0.0564 (61.8%). The price has already tested the 61.8% level and appears to be consolidating there. A break below 0.0564 could lead to a retest of the 0.0560 level, where prior support was tested but failed to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period EMA as a trigger for short entries below key Fibonacci levels like 0.0567 or 0.0564, confirmed by a bearish divergence in RSI and declining volume. Stops could be placed just above the most recent high (e.g., 0.0570–0.0571), while targets align with the next Fibonacci level or the recent 24-hour low at 0.0559. This approach would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum in a volatile but consolidating market.