SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) Market Overview

• SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) opened at $0.0336 and traded between $0.032 and $0.0341, closing at $0.0319.
• Price action shows a bearish bias, with a 6.86% decline over the last 24 hours.
• High volatility emerged after a consolidation phase, with volume spiking during a sharp drop.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but lack of follow-through may indicate distribution.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, while Fibonacci retracements highlight potential support levels.

SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) opened at $0.0336 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0319 at the same time on 2025-11-03. The price traded as high as $0.0341 and as low as $0.0311 during the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 18,094,863.0, while turnover amounted to approximately $591,831.95. A significant drop in price occurred after 23:30 ET, breaking below a key support level.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours shows a bearish breakdown with a long lower wick, suggesting rejection of higher prices. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 04:45 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji formed near $0.0327, signaling indecision and potential reversal, though the continued sell-off invalidated this. A prior support level at $0.0322 was retested twice but failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with the 20SMA recently crossing below the 50SMA—forming a potential death cross. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are converging from a wide bearish spread, hinting at a possible short-term bottoming process. The price remains below all major EMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the last 15 minutes of the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover. The histogram showed a gradual expansion, indicating intensifying bearish momentum. RSI has fallen into oversold territory (below 30) but failed to trigger a bounce, suggesting distribution rather than a short-term bottom. A failure to break above the 40 level could prolong the bearish phase.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, with price hitting the lower band multiple times. A contraction phase occurred before the breakdown, suggesting consolidation and increased volatility. The price remains near the lower band, with little sign of reversal. A potential rebound may see the price testing the midline or upper band for confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the breakdown phase, with a 15-minute candle at 15:30 ET showing the largest volume (2.95M) and the most significant drop in price (from $0.0321 to $0.0304). The high volume during this candle confirmed the breakdown rather than suggesting a false move. However, the subsequent volume failed to follow through, indicating possible profit-taking or distribution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing (from $0.0341 to $0.0311), the 38.2% level sits at $0.0327, the 61.8% at $0.0321, and the 100% at $0.0311. The price has tested both the 38.2% and 61.8% levels and failed to hold above either. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is near $0.0325, where further support may appear if the price corrects.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish bias and the breakdown below key support levels, a backtest strategy could be designed to test the performance of a short entry triggered by a close below the 1% resistance level of the 20-day rolling high, with a stop just above the prior swing high. A trailing stop could be used to capture momentum. This approach aligns with the observed price behavior, where a breakdown was confirmed by both price and volume. Further testing could refine the entry and exit parameters for optimal risk-adjusted returns.