Super Micro Computer Rises 4.77% as Technicals Signal Potential Rebound From $40 Support

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose 4.77% in the latest session to close at $42.84, recovering from the prior day’s sharp decline. Below is a technical analysis incorporating multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
SMCI’s June 23 bearish engulfing candle (high: $43.60, low: $40.775) signaled strong selling pressure after a tepid advance on June 20. However, the subsequent 4.77% white candle on June 24 closed near its high ($42.84), forming a potential bullish piercing pattern. This suggests accumulation near the psychological $40 support level, which aligns with June’s double-bottom structure at $40.78. Immediate resistance is evident at $43.15 (June 24 high), with a break above potentially targeting the June 20 high of $46.18.
Moving Average Theory
Price remains below all key moving averages, confirming a bearish primary trend. The 50-day SMA ($39.80) crossed below the 100-day SMA ($45.20) in late May, while the death cross between the 50-day and 200-day SMA ($53.10) solidified in early June. However, the 2025-06-24 close at $42.84 holds above the 50-day SMA, signaling near-term resilience. The 50-day SMA’s flattening slope suggests selling momentum may be easing, though sustained recovery requires conquering the 100-day SMA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum, with the June 24 uptick aligning with price recovery. However, the MACD line remains below its signal line, reflecting persistent intermediate-term weakness. Concurrently, KDJ indicators exited oversold territory (K: 35→48, D: 32→40) after the $40.78 double-bottom. While the %K/%D crossover hints at short-term upside potential, the primary bearish MACD configuration advises caution against premature reversal calls.
Bollinger Bands
June’s pronounced band contraction (20-day bandwidth narrowed to $2.15 from $3.80 in May) culminated in the June 23 volatility expansion. The June 24 close near the upper band ($43.10) signals immediate bullish pressure. Historically, such squeezes preceded directional moves—February’s contraction resolved with a 25% rally, while April’s led to a 20% decline. Current price positioning near the upper band suggests tactical upside bias, but reversal risk persists if volatility contracts anew.
Volume-Price Relationship
The June 23 sell-off (-9.77%) occurred on 67.7M shares—well above the 20-day average volume of 62.4M—indicating capitulation. The subsequent 4.77% rally materialized on below-average volume (58.1M shares), questioning sustainability. Notably, volume has trended lower since February’s distribution climax, suggesting waning participation in the downtrend. A decisive breakout above $43.15 requires volume expansion >65M shares for validation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (51.8) rebounded from oversold territory (29.5 on June 13) but remains neutral, avoiding overbought conditions since February. This reflects structurally weak momentum, though its recovery from extreme lows supports near-term stabilization. Bearish divergence is notable: The RSI peaked at 58.3 during February’s $66.44 high but only reached 54.1 at June’s $46.18 high, signaling weakening upside thrust.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the February-June downtrend (swing high: $66.44 on 2025-02-19; swing low: $40.78 on 2025-06-23), key retracement levels are 23.6% ($46.81), 38.2% ($50.56), and 50% ($53.61). The June 24 close at $42.84 sits below the primary 23.6% barrier. Repeated rejections near $46.81 in May-June cement this as critical overhead resistance. A confirmed breakout above $46.81 could catalyze momentum toward $50.56, while failure maintains bearish control.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Converging support at $40 combines the double-bottom, 50-day SMA, and psychological level—validated by RSI oversold signals and KDJ reversals. Conversely, bearish divergences emerge: MACD’s failure to enter positive territory despite price recovery, and low-volume advances. The bullish candle, Bollinger squeeze resolution, and Fibonacci alignment suggest upside to $46.81. However, volume-MACD divergences and the bearish moving average structure warrant skepticism. Traders should monitor $43.15 for breakout confirmation or rejection.