Super Micro Computer Gains 3.78% As Bullish Signals Test Key Resistance At 44.50

Candlestick Theory
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed at $43.12, marking a 3.78% gain, forming a second consecutive bullish candle after testing support near $41.88–$41.39. This zone has solidified as a short-term floor, rejecting declines twice in early June. The June 5th long red candle ($44.18 high to $40.77 close) established $44.50–$45 as immediate resistance, reinforced by the June 4th and June 3rd rejection wicks. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged on June 9th, closing above the prior session’s high, suggesting bullish momentum. However, sustained moves above $44.50 are critical to invalidate the upper resistance.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (currently near $46.50) caps recent rallies, reflecting short-term bearish pressure. However, the 100-day ($41.80) and 200-day ($37.20) averages remain ascending, indicating intact long-term uptrend support. The current price trades above both longer-term averages, affirming structural bullishness. A sustained break above the 50-DMA could reignite upside momentum, while failure to hold the 100-DMA may signal consolidation toward $39–$40.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bearish crossover below its signal line, with histogram bars extending negatively, signaling fading upward momentum. Conversely, the KDJ oscillator (14-period) exited oversold territory (K: 35, D: 28, J: 49), suggesting near-term exhaustion of selling pressure. The divergence between MACD’s bearish stance and KDJ’s recovery bounce creates ambiguity, implying potential choppiness. A MACD reversal above the signal line is needed to align with KDJ’s nascent recovery.
Bollinger Bands
Price rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band ($40.80) on June 5th, confirming volatility-based support. The bands narrowed sharply from late May to early June, indicating reduced volatility before the June 5th breakdown. Current price action tests the mid-band (20-period SMA, ~$42.70), with the upper band at $45.60. A close above the mid-band would support bullish continuation, while rejection could retest the lower band near $41. Confluence with the 100-DMA adds significance to the mid-band.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent advances (June 9th: 27.3M shares, June 6th: 25.5M) lacked conviction compared to the June 5th sell-off (40.7M). This volume divergence raises sustainability concerns for the rebound. Significant volume spikes accompanied major trend shifts: the May 14–15 surge (169M and 87M shares) confirmed breakout momentum, while February’s peak volumes preceded corrections. Current volume profiles suggest cautious accumulation but no decisive bullish confirmation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI recovered to 54 from oversold lows near 30 on June 5th, reflecting improving momentum but not yet overbought (>70). This neutral midpoint reading allows room for further gains. Earlier RSI peaks at 75 (mid-May) aligned with price reversals, validating resistance. Failure to breach 60 in the near term may indicate waning recovery strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the May advance (swing low: May 12, $33.52; high: May 16, $46.15) reveals critical retracement supports. The 38.2% level ($41.40) held on June 5–6, while the 50% level ($39.80) aligns with the 200-DMA. Resistance converges at the 23.6% retracement ($44.50), coinciding with June 3–4 highs and the 50-DMA. A decisive break above $44.50 targets the May high at $46.15; failure may retest the 50% Fib near $40.
Confluence & Divergence Synthesis
Strong confluence exists around $44.50 resistance (50-DMA, Fib 23.6%, and prior swing highs). Support converges at $41.40 (100-DMA, recent double-bottom, and Fib 38.2%). Notably, bearish volume divergence and MACD’s downtrend conflict with KDJ’s recovery signal and RSI neutrality. This divergence implies indecision. A confirmed close above $44.50 with elevated volume may trigger bullish continuation toward $46–$47. Conversely, losing $41.40 risks a deeper pullback to $39.80–$40.