SUIUSDT Market Overview: Sudden Collapse, Oversold RSI, and Diverging Volume

• SUIUSDT experienced a sharp 15-minute sell-off dropping from $3.30 to $2.01, a 39.1% decline.
• Volatility surged with a 3.5x increase in average 15-minute notional turnover after 9 PM ET.
• A key Fibonacci support at $2.41 (38.2% retracement) briefly held before breaking decisively.
• RSI hit oversold territory (<30) during the collapse, but no rebound occurred. • Volume spiked above 10M USDT during the crash but failed to confirm bearish momentum.

SUIUSDT opened at $3.30 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.7155 the following day at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $3.3343 and a low of $0.5597. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 403,254,265 USDT, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.03 billion. The sharp correction beginning at 9:30 PM ET saw the price drop nearly $1.70 in under 45 minutes, signaling heightened volatility and potential structural weakness.
Structure and formations show a critical breakdown after a 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed at $2.7423, confirming the shift in sentiment. The price then accelerated downward, piercing the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $2.41, followed by the 50% retracement at $2.65, without any meaningful bounce. The 15-minute chart now shows a bearish trend channel forming from $3.33 to $0.56. A doji formed briefly at $2.7053 around 12:45 PM ET, signaling indecision, but failed to reverse the trend.
MACD remained in bearish territory throughout the crash, with the histogram expanding after the 9:30 PM ET plunge, indicating accelerating bearish momentum. RSI dived into oversold territory below 30 for the first time since the start of the session but failed to trigger a rebound. Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the crash, reflecting heightened volatility, while the price spent a significant portion of the session trading near the lower band, suggesting potential exhaustion of the bearish wave. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both turned downward, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Volume and notional turnover spiked dramatically during the 9:30 PM ET sell-off, with a single candle printing over $25 million in turnover and a 45-minute period producing nearly $80 million. Despite the heavy volume, price failed to close above any key Fibonacci or moving average levels, suggesting a breakdown in buyer participation. A divergence emerged between volume and price, with turnover increasing as the asset fell, which is a classic sign of panic selling. The daily chart 50- and 200-period moving averages now appear to be forming a bearish crossover, reinforcing the risk of further downside.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the key swing high at $3.3343 and the low at $0.5597 show that SUI is currently trading near the 61.8% level at $2.54. If buyers fail to re-enter the market at these levels, the next significant support would be at $1.94, representing the 78.6% retracement. On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages have crossed below the price, confirming a strong bearish bias. However, the RSI's prolonged oversold condition suggests there is a possibility of a bounce within the next 24 hours, though this should be treated with caution.

**Backtest Hypothesis** The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the price breaks below a 15-minute Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level and the RSI confirms oversold conditions (below 30), with a stop-loss placed just above the nearest resistance. The 20-period moving average is used as a trailing stop. During the observed 24-hour period, this setup was met at $2.7423 with RSI at 27 and MA20 below the price. A short taken at that point with a stop above $2.81 would have captured the subsequent $0.5597 low, yielding a 64.6% return. The strategy may be profitable in high-volatility, bear-dominant environments, but requires careful risk management due to the unpredictable nature of retail-driven selloffs.