SUIJPY Market Overview – 2025-10-04

• SUIJPY opened at 535.1 and closed at 518.4, with a 24-hour high of 540.92 and low of 516.3.
• Price formed bearish engulfing and bearish continuation patterns during the downward move.
• RSI entered oversold territory near close, suggesting potential near-term support.
• Volatility expanded midday before compressing toward the close, suggesting reduced momentum.
• Total 24-hour volume was 274,187.9 and turnover was 140,552,000 yen, showing strong liquidity.

The Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) pair opened at 535.1 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at 518.4 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, following a 24-hour range of 540.92 (high) to 516.3 (low). Total volume for the period was 274,187.9, while notional turnover reached 140,552,000 yen, reflecting significant activity.

Structurally, the price action showed a strong bearish bias after a key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed at 532.28, followed by a continuation of selling pressure. A notable bearish reversal was also observed near 529.80, where price failed to retest the upper resistance from earlier in the day. Strong support appears to be forming around the 516–518 level, particularly as the RSI entered oversold territory near 25, and the price has tested this range twice in the final hours.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated a bearish crossover, with the 20-period below the 50-period for most of the session. Daily MAs like the 50/100/200 showed divergence—while the 50/100 crossed below the 200, the 15-minute chart saw continued bearish momentum. This suggests a possible continuation of the short-term downtrend, though daily divergence could indicate a potential correction.

Volatility was highest between 16:00 and 19:30 ET as the price swung between 532.28 and 527.23, but it compressed significantly after 02:00 ET. Bollinger Bands showed price staying within the lower half of the band in the final 12 hours, indicating reduced momentum. Notable Fibonacci retracement levels include 61.8% at ~523.7 and 38.2% at ~527.4, both of which were tested multiple times and failed to hold.

The MACD histogram turned negative for the majority of the session, confirming the bearish trend, while the RSI showed a bottoming process around 518.4. Volume remained high through the core of the downtrend but dropped off toward the close, suggesting waning bearish conviction. Price action and oscillator divergence imply the pair may find near-term support or see a pullback from 516.3–518.4, though risks remain on the lower side if the 516.3 level breaks.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the bearish reversal patterns and overbought-to-oversold transition in the RSI, a potential short-term trading strategy could focus on shorting on breakouts below 518.4, with a stop loss above the 520.44 level and a target at 516.3. This approach would capitalize on the RSI’s oversold reading and the strong bearish bias visible on the 15-minute chart. Additionally, a counter-trend long entry may be considered near the 516.3 support, provided the RSI shows divergence, as this could signal a short-term rebound before resuming the downtrend. Given the high volume in the early phase of the downtrend, such a strategy could offer strong risk/reward potential if implemented with tight stop-loss orders.