Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) traded in a downtrend, closing below 2.01 after an early morning rally.
• Volatility surged mid-day as the price gapped down from 2.05, with heavy bearish pressure post 01:00 ET.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions in the morning, but failed to generate a meaningful bounce.

Market Activity

Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) opened at 2.0422 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 2.0592 before closing at 1.9928 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range spanned 2.0592 to 1.9303. Total volume reached 10,832,356.97 SUI, with notional turnover of $21,594,556.51.

The price action began with consolidation in the morning, followed by a sharp bearish break below key support levels. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 03:00 ET, confirming the continuation of the downward trend. A long lower wick in the 05:15 ET candle suggested some rejection of lower levels, but failed to reverse the trend.

Structure and Patterns

Key support levels were tested and broken at 2.03 and 2.01, while resistance at 2.05 and 2.06 failed to hold. A bearish engulfing candle confirmed the breakdown below 2.03. A long lower wick around 05:15 ET indicated rejection of 1.99 levels, but volume did not support a reversal. A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level lies at 1.95–1.97, suggesting the current move could extend further if bears continue to control momentum.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages trended downward, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line mid-morning, reinforcing the downward bias. RSI moved into oversold territory (below 30) but failed to bounce, signaling exhaustion or a potential continuation of the downtrend. The MACD crossed into negative territory, with bearish divergence suggesting further downside could follow.

Volatile Expansion and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded mid-day following the breakdown of the 2.03 support level, with price trading near the lower band for most of the afternoon. This indicates a period of heightened volatility and bearish bias. As of the close, SUIUSDT was trading near the lower band, suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish move unless a strong bullish reversal forms.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown below 2.03 and again at 01:00 ET when the price fell below 2.00. Turnover remained elevated during these periods, aligning with the bearish price action. A divergence between price and volume emerged in the late morning as SUIUSDT fell but volume dipped, indicating potential exhaustion or a pause in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing from 2.0592 to 1.9303, the 61.8% level lies near 1.95. The daily chart retracement from the 2.05–1.93 swing also targets similar levels. If the current trend continues, the 78.6% level could be tested near 1.92, but this would require sustained bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the RSI oversold signals observed in the morning, paired with Fibonacci levels for profit-taking or stop-loss placement. Given the current bearish momentum, a long entry could be avoided in favor of a short position triggered by a breakdown of the 2.03 support, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. However, the absence of volume confirmation at key levels and weak RSI bounce suggest that this move may extend further without a strong reversal cue.