SUI Surges 12.8% as Whales Accumulate, but Overbought Conditions Loom

SUI has recently broken above a multi-month triangle pattern, pushing its price above $3.60 with a 12.8% surge. This breakout signals a potential reversal and growing bullish confidence, with the price now hovering near a historical supply zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hit 72.7, indicating that SUI is now in overbought territory. This, combined with the price trading near the upper Bollinger Band, suggests that the rally could temporarily cool down or consolidate.

The breakout was driven by large participants, or "whales," as indicated by a spike in spot average order size. This suggests that institutions are accumulating at breakout levels, which typically leads to more sustained rallies. The large orders appear consistent over multiple sessions, implying strategic accumulation rather than short-term speculation. Therefore, whale involvement at this stage may offer a foundation for broader bullish continuation if other market conditions align in support.

However, on-chain data revealed that SUI recorded $6.49 million in positive netflow, indicating that tokens moved onto exchanges at their highest level in weeks. This marked a shift from prior consistent outflows and could suggest that holders are preparing to take profits following the breakout. Although net inflows do not always translate into active selling, they reflect increased readiness to liquidate positions. Hence, traders should closely monitor whether this inflow trend persists, which may undermine short-term price strength and trigger brief consolidation phases.

Despite spot traders appearing cautious, the derivatives market is still leaning toward upside continuation. The 90-day CVD trend confirmed a dominant taker buy volume, meaning that traders were aggressively hitting market buy orders. At the same time, the Funding Rate remained positive at 0.0089%, reflecting bullish sentiment and willingness to hold long positions. Thus, if spot activity resumes and aligns with futures enthusiasm, the rally may accelerate.

Technically, SUI has entered a crucial supply zone between $3.83 and $4.05—an area where past rallies stalled. If bulls manage to flip this supply zone into support, further upside remains viable, with $4.80 as the next target on the Fibonacci map. However, the sudden exchange inflows and overbought conditions may slow its momentum. If buyers flip the supply zone into support while maintaining positive funding and accumulation trends, a sustained rally—potentially targeting $4.80—remains likely.