SUI's Critical Support Test: A Technical and Behavioral Case for Momentum Positioning Ahead of Wave B Confirmation

SUI's Critical Support Test: A Technical and Behavioral Case for Momentum Positioning Ahead of Wave B Confirmation

The SUI token, the native asset of the Sui blockchain, has entered a pivotal phase in its price trajectory as it tests critical support levels in October 2025. With the price hovering near $3.41, the cryptocurrency faces a defining moment: a successful defense of key supports could validate a bullish momentum thesis, while a breakdown would signal renewed bearish pressure. This analysis synthesizes technical chart patterns, Elliott Wave dynamics, and investor behavior signals to argue that SUI is primed for a strategic positioning opportunity ahead of potential Wave B confirmation.

Technical Analysis: Support Levels and Momentum Dynamics

SUI's current price action is centered on a critical support cluster between $3.46 and $3.50. According to a Blockchain News analysis, holding above these levels would reinforce the bullish case, as they align with the 50-day moving average and prior consolidation zones. Conversely, a breakdown below $3.11-a level identified by Changelly as a key psychological threshold-could trigger a cascade to $2.47, invalidating the medium-term uptrend.

The RSI and MACD indicators present a mixed picture. While the MACD shows bearish momentum, the RSI has retreated to neutral territory, suggesting weakening downward pressure, according to a BTCC analysis. Volume analysis further complicates the narrative: sustained trading above average volume levels could confirm a bullish breakout, whereas declining volume might hint at waning conviction. For momentum traders, the key is to monitor a sustained close above $3.89, which would breach the first major resistance and open the path to $4.25-a target cited by Blockonomi.

Elliott Wave: Wave B Confirmation and Structural Implications

Elliott Wave theory provides a framework for understanding SUI's broader trend. As noted by MoneyCheck, the token has completed an impulsive five-wave structure since April 2025, with Wave 3 (the strongest in the pattern) currently in progress. Analysts anticipate a pullback to form Wave 4 before a final fifth wave propels SUI toward $5.20 or beyond, as highlighted in prior BTCC coverage.

Wave B confirmation-a corrective phase in the Elliott Wave model-is expected by October 2025, with a $4.20 price target within 4–6 weeks (per earlier Blockchain News coverage). This scenario hinges on SUI consolidating above $3.49 (the 20-period SMA) while avoiding a breakdown below $3.11. If achieved, it would validate a larger bullish pattern, potentially setting the stage for a move toward $10 by mid-2026, a trajectory discussed in Blockonomi's analysis.

Investor Behavior: Sentiment and On-Chain Signals

Beyond technicals, investor behavior offers compelling clues. SUI's Fear and Greed Index, tracked by Gate.com, currently reflects cautious optimism, with readings in the "fear" range-a contrarian signal often preceding bullish reversals. On-chain data further supports this narrative: $8.74 million in capital has moved off exchanges in recent weeks, indicating long-term accumulation and reduced selling pressure, as reported earlier.

Ecosystem fundamentals also bolster the case. Total Value Locked (TVL) in Sui-based DeFi platforms hit $2.219 billion in July 2025, and institutional partnerships with Microsoft and Fireblocks have enhanced the token's utility-developments noted in BTCC coverage. These developments, combined with a resilient response to a May 2025 token unlock described in an OKX analysis, suggest strong demand and market confidence.

Positioning for Momentum: Strategic Considerations

For momentum strategies, the key inflection points are clear:
1. Bullish Case: A close above $3.89 with rising volume would confirm a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern, targeting $4.25. Traders should also watch for RSI recovery above 50 and a sustained move above the 200-day SMA.
2. Bearish Risk: A breakdown below $3.11 with high volume would invalidate the bullish thesis, potentially triggering a retest of $2.47 as noted in Changelly's coverage.
3. Wave B Timing: Positioning ahead of October's expected Wave B confirmation could capitalize on a consolidation phase, with a $4.20 target in 4–6 weeks per earlier analyses.

Conclusion

SUI's critical support test in October 2025 represents a crossroads for the token. Technical indicators, Elliott Wave dynamics, and investor behavior all converge on a scenario where a successful defense of key supports could catalyze a significant bullish move. While risks remain-particularly a breakdown below $3.11-the confluence of on-chain accumulation, ecosystem growth, and structural price patterns makes a compelling case for strategic positioning ahead of Wave B confirmation.