Sui Altcoin Faces 44% Loss, 17% Recovery, and 56% Outperformance

Sui [SUI], an altcoin, had a mixed performance in the first half of 2025. Despite this, Raoul Pal, the Founder and CEO of Real Vision, predicts that SUI could become a top-five performer in 2025. Pal's optimism is based on the altcoin's potential to rally in the second half of the year, despite facing headwinds in the first quarter that led to a 44% loss. In the second quarter, SUI recovered 17%, and Pal expects even more gains in the second half of the year.

Pal projected that SUI could hover above $2.2, a key support level in April 2025 that was a previous resistance in 2024. He also highlighted that, in the long run, the altcoin would consolidate below $3.5 before a potential breakout if Bitcoin (BTC) prints a new all-time high. Pal believes that as BTC breaks its all-time highs, SUI will outperform again and remain in the top five major performers in this cycle.

However, the real-time SUI/SOL ratio tells a different story. In late April, SUI outperformed SOL by 56%, but since May, SUI has underperformed SOL by 26%. This means that investors were better off holding SOL than SUI late in the third quarter. The weakening could extend for a few weeks before a potential rebound if the ratio defends 0.016. If that happens, then the altcoin could outperform SOL by 56% again.

Sui’s recovery in the second quarter was not just narrative-driven; part of the strong recovery was aided by the chain’s DeFi traction. In April, Sui’s monthly DEX volume hit $11 billion, up from March’s $7 billion. This coincided with broader market recovery and memecoin mania across the Sui DeFi ecosystem. In May, DEX volume climbed to a record all-time high of $14.12 billion, pushing SUI’s price to $4.2. However, since DeFi traction needs SUI for fee payments, the overall demand for the altcoin also dipped in June, pulling it from over $4 to $2.2.

Despite June’s cooldown, Pal’s long-term chart analysis shows the altcoin nearing the apex of a symmetrical triangle — a pattern known to precede breakout moves. This suggests that SUI could be poised for a significant rally in the coming months, potentially reaching the top five performers in 2025. However, it remains to be seen whether SUI can overcome the challenges it faces and live up to its potential as a top performer in the altcoin market.