Sugar Futures Prices Rise Slightly on Wednesday, July 9, 2025.

Sugar futures prices as of July 9th, 2025, are reported on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) platform. Prices for various contracts such as Oct 25, Mar 26, May 26, and Jul 26 are shown, with the Oct 25 contract trading at 16.51 cents per lb. The volume for today is 48,160, while the open interest is 842,797. The open interest change is +7735.

Sugar futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) platform as of July 9th, 2025, reflect a moderately bearish market sentiment. The October 25 contract is trading at 16.51 cents per pound, down from recent highs due to various factors impacting global sugar production and supply.

The October 25 contract on ICE has seen a significant decrease in volume and open interest, with today's volume at 48,160 and open interest at 842,797. The open interest change is +7735, indicating a slight increase in market participation. This data suggests a cautious approach by market participants, possibly due to the ongoing uncertainty about future supply and demand dynamics.

The recent decline in sugar prices can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the removal of frost risk from weather forecasts in Brazil has reduced concerns about potential crop damage, leading to a more optimistic outlook for Brazilian sugar production. Secondly, the early arrival of the monsoon season in India has bolstered expectations for a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. Additionally, the Indian government's decision to allow sugar mills to export 1 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar this season has eased restrictions on exports, further increasing global supply.

According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast has risen to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT, indicating a tightening market following the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. The USDA has projected a record global 2025/26 sugar production of 189.318 MMT, with global sugar ending stocks climbing +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. These projections suggest a surplus in the global sugar market, which is bearish for prices.

In contrast, reduced sugar production in Brazil provides some support to prices. Unica reported that the cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through mid-June is down by -14.6% y/y to 9.404 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. This reduction in Brazilian production may help to balance the global sugar market and provide some support to prices.

Overall, the current sugar futures prices reflect a market that is cautiously optimistic about future supply and demand dynamics. The key factors to watch will be the actual realization of global sugar production and the potential impact of weather conditions on crop yields in Brazil and India.

References:
[1] https://www.elkhart.coop/news/story/33251082/sugar-prices-fall-as-brazil-frost-risks-recede